根据天气预报估算参照腾发量的模糊神经网络方法

    Daily reference evapotranspiration estimation from weather forecast messages-the ANFIS method

    • 摘要: 尝试利用日常天气预报中天气情况和日最高气温的预报信息,采用自适应模糊神经推理系统(ANFIS)方法,构建参照腾发量估算方法,预报参照腾发量。用北京市大兴区1995~2003年间的逐日实测气象资料进行模型训练,用2004年逐日气象资料进行预报和模型检验。由天气预报估算的结果(ANFIS-ET0)与Penman-Monteith方法计算的ET0值(PM-ET0)进行了对比分析。结果表明:后者与训练数据的线性相关系数为0.90,检验结果为0.84;t检验结果表明,训练数据和预报数据均具有很高的显著性(α=0.01)。结果同时说明,在提高日常天气预报准确率、选择最合适的隶属度函数和模糊规则的基础上,运用智能算法解决农田灌溉复杂问题是可行的和方便快捷的。

       

      Abstract: Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) reflects the integrated impacts of weather conditions on the evaporation and transpiration, and serves as the basic data for crop irrigation and water allocation in irrigation areas. The estimation of the reference evapotranspiration with weather information, if feasible, will be useful to irrigation scheduling, especially in the areas where no instrumentations installed. In this study, an ET0 prediction model was reported. The model is based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and uses commonly available weather information such as sunshine condition and daily maximum temperature to forecast ET0. The daily meteorological data from 1995 to 2003 at Daxing County, Beijing, were used to train the model, and the data in 2004 were used to predict the ET0 in that year and to validate the model. The ET0 in training period (Train-ET0) and the predicted results (Test-ET0) were compared with the ET0 computed by Penman-Monteith method (PM-ET0). The results indicated that the PM-ET0 values were closely and linearly correlated with Train-ET0 and Test-ET0 with regression coefficient of 0.9015 and 0.8366, respectively, and showed the higher significances (α=0.01) of the Train-ET0 and Test-ET0. The results indicate the feasibility of using the convenient model to resolve the problems of agriculture irrigation with intelligent algorithm, and more accurate weather forecast, appropriate membership function and suitable fuzzy rules.

       

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