基于分形理论的干旱区绿洲耕地动态变化及驱动力研究

    Dynamic changes of cropland based on fractal theory and its driving forces in arid oasis

    • 摘要: 以干旱区典型绿洲新疆于田县为研究区,利用遥感、地理信息系统和全球定位系统(3S技术)相结合的方法,在分形理论的基础上,计算了于田县1976、1989、1999和2001年耕地资源的分维值D、稳定性指数SI和分维变ΔD,并根据其值的物理意义,对耕地的动态变化进行了定性分析。同时根据历年统计数据,运用主成分分析法对引起绿洲耕地数量时空变化的11个驱动因子进行了定量分析。结果表明:社会经济发展水平、人口增长、农业科技进步和水土资源限制是影响耕地数量26年动态变化的主成分,其研究对干旱区农业绿洲耕地的合理利用和可持续性发展具有重要意义。

       

      Abstract: Taking the typical Yutian oasis in arid southern Xinjiang Region as the study area, applying 3S techniques(RS, GIS and GPS) and fractal theory, several parameters such as the fractal dimension(D), stability index(SI) and fractal dimension change(ΔD) of cropland, were calculated in four separate years(1976, 1989, 1999 and 2001). The dynamic changes of cropland area were analyzed qualitatively according to the physical meaning of these parameters. Furthermore, by using statistical data of past years and principal component analysis, eleven driving forces resulting in temporal-spacial changes of cropland area were analyzed quantitatively. Results indicate that the primary factors which influence on dynamic changes of cropland area within 26 years are the socio-economic development level, population growth, scientific and technological progress in agriculture, and restrictions of water and soil resources. The research results are of great significance to the reasonable utilization and sustainable development of cropland in the oasis of arid areas.

       

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