喀斯特山区土地利用/覆被变化情景模拟

    Simulation of land use/cover change scenarios in Karst mountain areas

    • 摘要: 该文运用CLUE-S模型模拟研究了贵州中部猫跳河流域在不同情景模式下未来十年内土地覆被的空间变化情况。根据研究区土地覆被结构的现状以及影响土地覆被变化的宏观因素,作者设计了生态安全目标、粮食安全目标、经济发展目标以及综合发展目标等4种可能出现的情景。结果表明,在不同土地利用情景下,猫跳河流域未来十年的土地覆被格局及其效应存在明显的差别。生态安全目标情景能在较大程度上改善流域的生态环境,但会对流域的粮食安全构成较大的威胁。粮食安全目标情景能够保障流域的粮食安全,但会导致区域生态环境质量下降。经济发展目标模式可充分保障经济建设用地的需求,但会威胁到流域的粮食安全。综合发展目标情景比较全面地考虑到了流域经济发展、生态保护以及粮食安全等需要,是研究区未来较为可取的土地利用模式。

       

      Abstract: Taking Maotiaohe River Basin in middle part of central Guizhou Province, southwest China as study area, the land cover change under different scenarios in the coming 10 years was simulated by CLUE-S model. Considering the present land use pattern and the macroscopic factors influencing land cover change, four land cover change scenarios, i.e. ecological security scenario, food security scenario, economic development scenario and also all-sided development scenario, were designed with the support of CLUE-S model, the possible spatial changes in land cover under four scenarios above were respectively modeled. Results demonstrated that there were perceivable differences between the land cover changes under different scenarios in the coming 10 years in Maotiaohe River Basin. Under the ecological security scenario, the eco-environment quality could be improved to large extent in general, but the food security would be threatened. Under the food security scenario, the food supply could be guaranted, but regional eco-environmental quality would go down. Under the scenario of economic development, construction land demand in economic development could be paid enough attention to, but food security would be damaged due to lots of high quality cultivated land occupied. The all-sided development scenario considers simultaneous all the economic development, ecological conservation, and also food security, and is more reasonable than others.

       

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