大中型拖拉机需求量混沌特征分析及预测时效研究

    Analysis of chaos characteristics and forecasting time-scale of the demand for big-medium-sized tractors

    • 摘要: 中国大中型拖拉机需求量是一个复杂的非线性系统。该文在分析大中型拖拉机需求特点的基础上,建立了基于混沌理论的农业装备需求特性分析及预测时效模型。采用中国1952至2004年大中型拖拉机需求量的实测数据,重点研究了其需求系统的相空间重构、关联维数的确定和柯尔莫哥洛夫熵的计算。结果表明:中国大中型拖拉机需求为混沌系统,影响需求量的因素有1~12个,最大可预测的时效为8a。

       

      Abstract: The demand for big-medium-sized tractors in China is a complicated non-linear system. Under the analysis of the characteristics of agricultural equipment demand system, a model of the demanding characteristics analysis and the research of predicting time-scale based on chaos theory were constructed. The paper focused on phase space reconstruction, correlation and Kolmogorov-sinaientropy applying the actual data of the domestic demand for big-medium-sized tractors from 1952~2004. The result showed that demand of agricultural equipment was chaos system, which indicated that there should have about 1~12 independent variables for describing demand change characteristics and the forecasting time-scale is about eight years.

       

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