2005~2035年全球农作物播种面积变化情景模拟研究

    Modeling sown area change for major crops during 2005~2035 at a global scale

    • 摘要: 全球农作物播种面积变化对世界或区域的农业可持续发展、粮食安全与生态环境具有重要影响,研究分析全球作物播种面积动态变化具有重要意义。该研究借助离散选择理论,基于Logit模型建立了一个全球主要作物(水稻、玉米、小麦、大豆)播种面积变化模拟系统,对2005~2035年间全球4大作物播种面积的变化情景进行了模拟;从作物播种面积时序变化特征和空间变化特征方面对模拟结果进行了详细分析,并重点分析了亚洲区域不同作物播种面积的动态变化趋势。尽管模型还存在一些不确定性,但模拟结果在一定程度上仍然能为理解未来农业土地利用的复杂动态变化提供帮助,也可以为相关部门提供决策支持和信息服务。

       

      Abstract: Changes of sown area for crops at global-scale have important effects for the agricultural sustainable development, food safety and eco-environment. An integrated model to simulate future changes in sown area of the world's major crops(rice, maize, wheat and soybean) at a global-scale was established based on a Logit model. Model validation by using two comparative methods indicates its reliability and capability for long-term scenario simulations. Based on the simulation for the period 2005~2035, the temporal and spatial characteristics of sown area changes for four major crops were analyzed and a specific attention was given to Asia region for its great implications for global agricultural production and food security. This study is the first attempt of modeling future change in crop sown area at global-scale through a simplified approach along with some assumptions. Although some uncertainties remain in the model, the simulation results can help to understand and explain the causes, locations, consequences and trajectories of agricultural land-use change, and provide a great support service for land-use planning and policy-making activities.

       

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