耕地质量预警系统设计与实证

    Design and empirical research of cultivated land quality early-warning system

    • 摘要: 耕地总量动态平衡的实现既要能保证耕地数量水平的动态平衡,还要能保证耕地质量水平的动态平衡,而实时监测耕地质量变化情况、建立耕地质量预警系统则是保障区域耕地质量动态平衡所必需的。该文基于已有研究成果,在耕地质量评价及其变化特征分析的基础上,基于GIS技术和数学方法,设计了耕地质量预警系统的功能、数据库内容、指标体系、警度判定模型及预警结果外推方法,并以江苏省金坛市为例,进行了耕地质量预警系统的实证研究。研究结果表明:耕地质量预警系统具有动态、实时的监测及预警功能,是阻止区域耕地质量下降、维持区域耕地总量动态平衡的有效工具,预警系统判定的警度指示着系统发展过程中各系统要素偏离正常状态的程度,为区域耕地总量动态平衡的调控提供了控制点。

       

      Abstract: The strategic ultimate aim of the dynamic balance maintenance of total cultivated land is not only to maintain the dynamic balance of cultivated land quantity level, but also to ensure the dynamic balance of cultivated land quality level. It’s necessary to monitor change of cultivated land quality level and build cultivated land quality early-warning system for maintaining the dynamic balance of region’s cultivated land quantity level. Taking the Jintan City as empirical study area and utilizing the former study results, this research has designed and carried out function, database content, index systems, alert degree determination methods and early-warning results trend extrapolation methods of cultivated land early-warning system based on evaluating cultivated land quality and analyzing its’ change characteristics using GIS and mathematics methods. The results show that: cultivated land quality early-warning system can prevent cultivated land quality from declining and maintain the dynamic balance of total cultivated land, because of its dynamic, real time monitoring function. Furthermore, alert degree determination of cultivated land quality early-warning system indicates the degree of early-warning sign index deviating from the normal status, consequently, early-warning system can provide obvious control point for regulating the regional dynamic balance of total cultivated land.

       

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