利用高程辅助进行土壤有机质的随机模拟

    Random simulation of soil organic matter using elevation as auxiliary information

    • 摘要: 为了探讨在条件模拟计算环境下,是否可以利用高程数据辅助提高土壤有机质空间变化的预测精度及相应的预测不确定性模拟的准确性,该文在北京市平谷区内选取研究样区,以土壤有机质作为目标变量,一方面利用序贯高斯模拟法对土壤有机质的空间分布进行模拟,另一方面以高程作为辅助信息,利用序贯高斯协模拟法对土壤有机质的空间分布进行模拟,然后对两种方法的模拟结果进行对比分析。结果表明,在土壤有机质的空间预测精度、模拟预测结果的局部不确定性和模拟预测结果的空间不确定性三方面,通过将高程数据考虑进有机质条件模拟过程中,准确性都得到了提高。这对于农业可持续发展以及全球碳平衡研究都具有十分重要的意义。

       

      Abstract: The object of this study is to determine whether elevation could be used to enhance the accuracy of prediction of soil organic matter spatial patterns and the accuracy of modeling the prediction uncertainty. The study was conducted on a area in Pinggu district of Beijing. Soil organic matter was used as target variable. The sequential Gaussian simulation accounting for single attribute and the sequential Gaussian co-simulation accounting for elevation secondary information were used for simulation of the soil organic matter. Thus, the results of the two methods were compared. The results showed that the accuracy of the spatial prediction, the accuracy of modeling the local uncertainty as well as the spatial uncertainty were increased by using the method of condition simulation accounting for the intensive elevation information. The findings are tremendously significant for sustainable agricultural production and global carbon change modeling.

       

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