基于自记忆原理的非点源污染负荷预测模型

    Model for prediction of non-point source pollution load based on self-memory theory

    • 摘要: 尝试将自记忆原理引入非点源污染负荷的预测研究中,并对一般形式的自记忆模型进行改进,建立了改进的非点源污染负荷自记忆预测模型。采用1976~1999年渭河华县站总氮非点源负荷及与其产生关系密切的径流、泥沙、上游流域降雨资料,前21 a资料用作训练,后3 a资料用作检验,经计算表明,该文所提出的改进的非点源污染负荷自记忆模型预测效果良好,该方法是一种可行的非点源污染负荷预测方法。

       

      Abstract: The self-memory theory was applied into a prediction model estimating annual non-point source(NPS) pollution load. The common self-memory model was modified to improve its accuracy. Data used for model establishing include non-point source pollution load of total nitrogen, flow, sediment at the Hua county hydrologic station on the Weihe River and precipitation of upstream basin from 1976 to 1999. The first 21 years’ data were used for training and the last 3 years’ data for testing. The results indicated that the modified self-memory method performed better, and the method could be used to predict NPS pollution load.

       

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