基于RS和GIS的西宁市LUCC分析及模拟预测

    Analysis and simulation prediction on LUCC of Xining city based on RS and GIS

    • 摘要: 通过研究位于青藏高原东部边缘西宁市土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)空间转化规律,以期揭示在人类活动加剧的大背景下,实施生态建设对城市与农村及其农牧业土地利用格局、生态环境效应、社会经济状况等产生的驱动机制。运用RS与GIS综合技术,通过精确解译西宁市1999年与2005年两期Landsat TM遥感影像,获取了较高精度的土地利用/覆被的定量统计及矢量图,结合动态指标分析了LUCC特征;并采用地图代数运算法求得各土地利用类型的Markov转移矩阵。结果表明:1999-2005年西宁市的耕地、草地和未利用土地是LUCC的核心类型,共有占研究区域总面积73.58%的土地利用方式发生了变化,表现为一种突变性质;6 a间,西宁市的河流、湖泊、湿地、草地和林地等面积显著增加,充分表明自2000年以来实施的生态建设极大地改善了西宁市的生态环境。在目前外界驱动力不变的条件下,通过Markov过程模拟与预测,未来10 a以及至终级稳定状态下,西宁市的耕地面积将继续减少,建筑和交通等建设用地持续增加;林地和草地,以及河流和湖泊等湿地所占面积比例的增加,将产生良好的生态环境效应。

       

      Abstract: Xining city is located in the east of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. With the development of human activities, studying spatial transformation regulation of land use and land cover change (LUCC) in this region is important to reveal the driving mechanism of the regional changes caused by environmental improvement campaign. These changes included land use patterns of animal husbandry in urban and rural areas, eco-environmental effects, socioeconomic situation , etc. GIS and the related models were applied to interpret precisely Landsat-TM remote sensing image of Xining city in 1999 and 2005, and quantitative statistic and phasor diagram on land use / cover had been worked out. Dynamic characteristics of LUCC were analyzed, and Markov transition matrix of various land use types was calculated by using map algebra as well. The results showed that cropland, grassland and uncultivated land were main types of LUCC in Xining city from 1999 to 2005. Variation of land use pattern had taken place promptly in 73.58% of the study area. Wetlands area such as rivers, lakes, etc. grassland area and woodlands area increased significantly during six years, indicating strong positive consequence of environmental improvement campaign in Xining since 2000. Results of simulation and prediction showed that under conditions of constant external impacts, cropland area in Xining city would continue to decrease, and construction land area such as buildings, roads, etc. will increase in the coming ten years. Increase of woodlands, grassland, rivers, lakes as well as wetland is certainly favorable to ecological environment.

       

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