基于作物水分亏缺指数的春玉米季节性干旱时空特征分析

    Analysis of spatio-temporal characteristic on seasonal drought of spring maize based on crop water deficit index

    • 摘要: 季节性干旱是影响湖南春玉米生产最突出的气象灾害,分析其时空分布特征和发生的规律,可为湖南春玉米生产的发展和合理布局提供技术支持。该文基于湖南省96个气象站点1961-2007年地面气象观测资料,采用FAO于1998年推荐的Penman-Monteith 方法计算了参考作物蒸散量、玉米的作物需水量。考虑盈余降水对水分亏缺指数的影响,修正了的水分亏缺指数计算方法,并依据玉米的水分亏缺指数,分析了季节性干旱发生频率的时空特征。并选取不同区域典型站点分析了水分亏缺指数年代际变化特征。结果表明,湖南春玉米生长季节内干旱呈现明显的季节性和空间区域分布特征:干旱频率较高的时段主要在玉米抽雄-吐丝阶段及其后的生育阶段,且随生育期后移干旱频率明显增加,以轻旱程度为主。空间分布特征是以湘中南的衡阳及周边一带干旱频率最高,其次为湘东、湘北一带次高,湘西等地春玉米干旱频率低。各年代之间比较,以20世纪80年代干旱较严重,90年代干旱相对较轻。

       

      Abstract: Seasonal drought is the most prominent meteorological disaster which affects spring maize production in Hunan Province. Therefore, analyzing its temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and occurring rules are important to provide technical supports for the development and reasonable layout of maize production in Hunan Province. Weather data of 96 stations from 1961 to 2007 were used to calculate the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) and crop water requirement (ETc) of maize by the method of Penman-Monteith formula commended by FAO(1998). In this paper, effects of surplus water on crop water deficit index (CWDI) were considered, and the calculating method of CWDI was modified. The frequencies of different classes of drought were calculated and their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed by the modified method of CWDI subsequently. Typical stations in different regions were selected to analyze the inter-decade variations of modified CWDI. Results indicated there were significant seasonal and spatial distribution characteristics. Drought occurred in high frequency at the stage of tasselling to silking and thereafter. Drought frequency obviously increased with backwards shift of growth stage. Light drought happened in higher frequency than medium and severe drought. In space, drought occurred with the highest frequency in Hengyang and its surrounding area in mid-south part of Hunan, followed with the east and north part, and low frequency region located in west part. Drought was more serious in 1980s, and became light in 1990s.

       

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