干旱过程对耕地自然生产功能的影响

    Effect of drought process on natural production function of cultivated land

    • 摘要: 客观评估干旱过程对耕地自然生产功能的影响有利于耕地保护中的科学决策。该文评价了干旱过程对北京耕地自然生产功能的影响。首先利用地表湿润指数来表征地表干湿程度,经Mann-Kendall方法检验出1951-2006年北京典型的干旱过程;其次利用气象数据和桑斯维特纪念模型计算了干旱过程起始和中止年份的自然生产潜力;最后分析了干旱过程对耕地自然生产潜力的影响。主要结论如下:1951-2006年,北京总体呈变干趋势,1979-1984年和1998-2006年干旱过程比较明显;1979、1984、1998和2006年北京平均自然生产潜力分别约为1 043、912、1 085和872 g/(m2·a),其中通州区的单位自然生产潜力最大,延庆最小;干旱过程对耕地自然生产潜力影响较大,自然生产潜力总量减少量在1979-1984年超过了10%,到1998-2006年即将达到20%。因此,在耕地管理过程中,不仅要注重耕地的数量和分布,还要考虑气候波动尤其是干旱过程对耕地生产功能的影响。

       

      Abstract: Assessing the effect of drought process on the production function objectively is helpful to cultivated land conservation. The effect of drought on production function of cultivated land in Beijing was evaluated. Firstly, the drought conditions were characterized by the surface wetting index (SWI), and the typical drought periods were identified using Mann-Kendall testing method. Then natural potential productivity of non-changed cultivated land was calculated with meteorological data using Thornthwaite Memorial model. Finally, the effect of drought on natural potential productivity of cultivated land was analyzed. Main conclusions were as follows: From 1951 to 2006, the SWI decreased with some fluctuation. The drought was significant during the periods of 1979-1984 and 1998-2006. Annual mean potential productivity was 1 043 g/(m2·a) in 1979, 912 g/(m2·a) in 1984, 1 085 g/(m2·a) in 1998, and 872 g/(m2·a) in 2006. The natural potential productivity in Tongzhou County was bigger than those in other counties, but that in Yanqing County was the smallest. The drought had great impacts on natural potential productivity. The total potential productivity loss exceeded 10% during the period of 1979-1984, and accounted for nearly 20% during the period of 1998-2006. Therefore, the government should simultaneously take into account the quantity and distribution of the cultivated land, and the impacts of climatic fluctuation especially the drought on the production function in the cultivated land management.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回