王 伟, 黄义德, 黄文江, 李存军, 王 娴. 作物生长模型的适用性评价及冬小麦产量预测[J]. 农业工程学报, 2010, 26(3): 233-237.
    引用本文: 王 伟, 黄义德, 黄文江, 李存军, 王 娴. 作物生长模型的适用性评价及冬小麦产量预测[J]. 农业工程学报, 2010, 26(3): 233-237.
    Applicability evaluation of CERES-Wheat model and yield prediction of winter wheat[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2010, 26(3): 233-237.
    Citation: Applicability evaluation of CERES-Wheat model and yield prediction of winter wheat[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2010, 26(3): 233-237.

    作物生长模型的适用性评价及冬小麦产量预测

    Applicability evaluation of CERES-Wheat model and yield prediction of winter wheat

    • 摘要: 为了研究CERES-Wheat模型在北京地区的适用性及应用模型对冬小麦产量进行预测,在对模型进行参数校正的基础上,通过连续3 a的试验数据对模型适用性进行评估,进一步采用试验点气象观测站2007-2008年气象数据作为驱动模型展开模拟,预测了2007-2008年北京冬小麦产量为6 000 kg/hm2,并对比了2004-2008年的模型模拟值(包括生殖生长期时间、叶面积指数和产量)与实际观测值。结果表明:模型模拟开花期时间一般较实际观测时间推迟6 d以内,成熟期时间一般较实际观测时间推迟5 d以内,叶面积指数和产量较真实值偏高,综合4 a产量预测数据发现模型模拟产量准确度在90%以上,说明CERES-Wheat模型在北京适用性良好,可以作为一个有效的冬小麦产量预测工具在农业中应用。

       

      Abstract: The aim of this study was to research the applicability of the CERES-Wheat Model and to use the model to predict the winter wheat yield. Based on the parameters calibrated correctly, constant 3a experimental data has been used for evaluation. After input 2007–2008 weather data of DAVIS station, the model predicted that the yield of winter wheat in 2008 was 6 000 kg/hm2. Then CERES-Wheat Model simulated and observed results (including the phonological dates, LAI and the yield)was compared. The final results showed that the deviation of simulated and observed anthesis dates was less than 6 days, the deviation of simulated and observed maturity dates was less than 5 days, simulated LAI and yield were higher than field-observed results, while the deviation of yield prediction was less than 10%. So the applicability of CERES-Wheat Model in Beijing is good and the model can be a useful research tool for yield forecast in agriculture.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回