1999-2008年中国土地资源经济安全评价

    Economic security evaluation of land resource in China from 1999 to 2008

    • 摘要: 采用专家调查法和层次分析法,构建土地资源经济安全综合评价指标体系。研究表明:1999-2008年中国土地资源经济安全呈现上升趋势,2007年和2008年达到“基本安全”水平。从各准则层来看,质量安全和效率安全呈现逐年上升趋势,2008年均达到“安全”水平;数量安全、结构安全和价格安全是制约中国经济增长的主要因素,长期处于“不安全”甚至“高度不安全”状态。从各指标来看,单位播种面积产值、环保投资占GDP的比例等质量安全指标,以及单位面积土地固定资产投资、单位面积土地GDP、复种指数等效率安全指标的评价值显著提高;不利因素是:人均耕地面积分值逐年下降,2008年接近“绝对不安全”;土地开发复垦面积、人均未利用土地面积得分也呈现逐年下降趋势;森林覆盖率偏低;住宅用地、商业用地价格近年来波动过大。

       

      Abstract: This research establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system of economic security of land resources by using Delphi and AHP methods. An empirical analysis of China is conducted. The conclusions are as follows. Firstly, the economic security of land resources in China keeps on improving from 1999 to 2008, and it is on the level of “basic security” since 2007. Secondly, from the perspective of each criterion layer, quality security and efficiency security improve year by year, and reach the level of “security”. The main restricting factors of China’s economic growth are quantity security, structure security and price security, keeping “unsafe” or even “highly insecure” state for a long period of time. Finally, from the perspective of each index, several index evaluation values significantly increase, such as some quality security indexes (unit acreage production, environmental investment proportion of GDP) and some efficiency security indexes (unit acreage investment in fixed assets, unit acreage GDP, multiple crop index). The unfavorable factors are: arable land area per capita decreases year by year, approaching “absolutely unsafe” in 2008; land reclamation area and unused land area per capita also keep on decreasing; forest cover stays at low level; residential land prices and commercial land prices fluctuate sharply in recent years.

       

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