基于湿润指数的中国干湿状况变化趋势

    Trends of Chinese dry-wet condition based on wetness index

    • 摘要: 进行中国未来干湿状况时空变化趋势的预测可对未来应对气候变化及调整农业生产布局提供重要理论依据。选取区域气候模式PRECIS输出的未来A2气候情景(2011-2050年)以及基准气候条件(1961-1990年)逐日资料,利用世界粮农组织推荐的Penman-Monteith方法,计算了参考作物蒸散和湿润指数,按照中国气候区划中的干湿指标把中国分为极干旱、干旱、半干旱、半湿润、湿润5个气候区,从农业角度分析了中国2011-2050年干湿状况时空变化趋势。结果表明:与基准气候条件相比,2011-2050年,除零星地区外,全国各地区降水量、参考作物蒸散均呈增加趋势,但是地区间差异都很显著;未来40 a中国气候总体上呈暖干趋势;2011-2050年,干旱、极干旱地区缩小趋势以及半干旱地区的扩大趋势都很明显。新疆西北部地区、内蒙古及长城沿线地区的西北部湿润趋势显著增加,而黄土高原地区的东南部、青藏地区中部的部分地区干旱化程度在逐步加大。

       

      Abstract: Predicting the temporal and spatial change of Chinaese dry-wet condition in the future can provide important theoretical support for developing the national response strategy on climate change, and adjusting the distribution of agricultural production layout. Based on the daily data of A2 climate scenario (2011-2050) and baseline climate condition (1961-1990) from the regional climate model PRECIS with resolution of 50 km×50 km, reference crop evapotranspiration and the wetness index were both calculated and analyzed according to Penman-Monteith equation recommended by FAO. In terms of grades of wetness index from Chinese Climate Classification Criterion, China is classified into severe arid, arid, semi-arid, semi-humid and humid zones, respectively. The possible temporal-spatial changes of dry-wet condition over the country from 2011 to 2050 were analyzed from an agricultural view. The results showed that: the amount of precipitation and reference crop evapotranspiration in the most regions would increase from 2011 to 2050 compared with the baseline climate conditions from 1961 to 1990. However, the inter-regional difference was significant; In the next 40 years, Chinaese climate showed a warming and drying trend in general; The area’s reducing trend in the arid and extreme arid region and the expanding trend in the semi-arid region during 2011 to 2050 would be obvious compared with the baseline climatic conditions. Climate would turn wetter in the northwest part of Xinjiang and the areas along the Great Wall and Inner Mongolia; while part of the semi-arid region e.g. southeast Loess Plateau and the central part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau would become drier.

       

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