农村基础设施投资效益评价的关键指标遴选

    Critical assessment indicators for measuring benefits of investment in rural infrastructure

    • 摘要: 农村基础设施对中国的农业增长、农村经济发展及脱贫意义重大。但中国目前尚没有完善相关设施的评价体系,尤其此类评价体系中的评价指标更是缺少。该研究旨在建立一套客观评价农村基础设施投资效益的关键指标体系(CAIs)。针对农村基础设施投资效益评价指标,通过对政府、高校和研究机构、咨询企业专家展开两轮问卷调查,进而采用蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS)分析问卷调查反馈的数据,并根据模拟结果运用模糊集合理论选取关键评价指标,总共选取了8个关键指标。研究表明,MCS可以有效克服数据源不足的缺陷,而模糊集合理论可以应对问卷调查中专家意见的模糊性。遴选出的8个关键指标与已有的零星研究相印证,为政府在农村基础设施投资提供依据。

       

      Abstract: Rural infrastructure is critical to promote agriculture development, rural economy development and alleviate poverty in China. However, there was few assessment indicators for rural infrastructure investment. The research aims to introduced a set of critical assessment indicators (CAIs) for objectively evaluating the benefits of investment in rural infrastructure in China. Research data was collected from a questionnaire survey to three groups of experts including government, professionals and business involving in China’s construction industry. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) was used to analyze the data, Based on the simulation results, the Fuzzy Set Theory was used in establishing CAIs. Eight indicators was selected as CAIs for assessing rural infrastructure investment in China. The analysis demonstrated that MCS can mitigate the deficiencies of limited samples from questionnaire responses while fuzzy set theory can take into account the fuzziness in questionnaire survey. The selected indicators are echoed by other researchers’ fragmentary study. The selected CAIs can help local government to make better decision when investing in rural infrastructure in China.

       

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