县级尺度下雪灾风险评价方法

Risk assessment of snow disaster on county scale

摘要: 雪灾是一种多因素综合作用而引发的气象灾害。目前国内外对于雪灾风险评价方面还没有形成一套统一的标准。该文借鉴气象学、灾害科学、自然地理学、草地科学等多门学科的理论和观点，结合层次分析法（AHP），提出一套较全面的雪灾风险评价指标体系，根据现有公认的风险形成机制构建雪灾风险评价模型，在县级尺度下进行雪灾风险评价。研究成果对于防灾减灾工作起到指导性作用。

Abstract: The snow disaster is a meteorological disaster caused by multi-role factors. So far, there is no unified standard for snow risk assessment. Combining theories and views about meteorology, physical geography, disaster science, grassland science and many other subjects, the study applied Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to establish index system and evaluation model of risk assessment about snow disaster under the existing and recognized formation mechanism of risk. With the evaluation model, the snow risk evaluation on county scale was condncted in China. The results show that it can provide a guidance for disaster prevention and reduction.