约束条件下燃料项目发展的模型及分析框架

    Model and analytic framework for fuel project development under constraint conditions

    • 摘要: 预期液态化石能源存在减排压力,发展以燃料乙醇为代表的液态生物质能源能够促进中国的减排进程与缓解粮食安全危机。该文建立一个以燃料乙醇为例的理论模型及分析框架,分别在短期动态均衡、长期动态均衡情况下分析生物质能源的发展对中国减排路径和粮食安全的可能影响。研究结果表明,要实现减排目标,中国政府应主动承担能源结构调整的成本,通过对非粮能源作物原料种植、燃料乙醇生产和乙醇汽油消费等三大环节进行有力补贴来支撑燃料乙醇产业的持续发展,从而达到缓解减排阻力和粮食安全威胁的目的。

       

      Abstract: There will be a big pressure on the emission reduction of liquid fossil fuel. Developing the liquid biomass can accelerate the process of emission reduction and ease food security crisis in China. A theoretical model and analytic framework exampled by fuel ethanol was established to analyze the possible effects of biomass development on the Chinese emission reduction methods and food security in the cases of both short-term and long-term dynamic equilibrium. The results showed that to achieve emission reduction targets, the Chinese government should take the initiative to assume the costs of energy structure adjustment and support the sustainable development in fuel ethanol industry by subsidizing non-food energy crops planting, fuel ethanol producing and fuel ethanol consuming for the purpose of easing emission reduction resistance and food security threat.

       

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