基于抽样调查地块实测数据的省级水稻单产遥感估算

    Rice yield estimation based on MODIS EVI and measured data derived from statistical sampling plots at province level

    • 摘要: 利用统计局抽样调查地块实割实测标准单位面积产量数据及空间位置信息,在研究水稻种植区MOD09GA、MYD09GA EVI (enhanced vegetation index)数据结合使用可行性分析的基础上,进行湖南省省级水稻单产遥感估算。结果表明:在水稻种植区,水稻生长期间有超过50%、85%、95%的MOD09GA与MYD09GA EVI偏差绝对值分别小于0.03、0.08、0.1。水稻遥感估产模型以二次非线性模型或回归模型精度较高,且时相集中在水稻生长的孕穗期到抽穗期。在省级水平上,与实测值相比,基于统计局统计抽样调查地块实割实测标准单位面积产量数据的水稻单产遥感拟合结果相对误差小于2%,预测结果的相对误差接近5%,且实测值与模拟值集中分布在1∶1线附近,说明预测结果与统计值在空间分布上具有较好的一致性。

       

      Abstract: Rice yield estimation by remote sensing is very important for making agricultural decisions and food security in China and worldwide. Based on the feasibility analysis of combination of MOD09GA and MYD09GA EVI(enhanced vegetation index), provincial unit rice yield was estimated using rice standard yield per area from statistical sampling survey plots. The results showed that more than 50%, 85% and 95% absolute difference between MOD09GA and MYD09GA EVI for rice sampling plots during rice growth period was less than 0.03, 0.08 and 0.1, respectively. The accuracies of estimating rice yield derived from quadratic nonlinear models and regression models were higher than those of other kind of models. The fitting and forecasting unit rice yield had a relative error of 2% and 5%, respectively. The scatter diagrams showed that the estimating paddy rice yield was closed to the observed data, which indicated that the estimating provincial unit rice yield based on MODIS EVI and measured data derived from statistical sampling plots was consistent with the statistical results.

       

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