条件植被温度指数的四维变分与集合卡尔曼同化方法

    Application of 4DVAR and EnKF approaches for assimilating vegetation temperature condition index

    • 摘要: 为了提高基于VTCI的干旱监测的准确性,以关中平原为研究区域,将遥感反演的条件植被温度指数(VTCI)与CERES-Wheat小麦生长模型模拟的土壤浅层水分数据相结合,通过四维变分(4DVAR)与集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)2种数据同化算法实现了VTCI的同化。由作物生长模型模拟的土壤浅层水分与VTCI建立经验关系得到模拟的VTCI,再将遥感反演的VTCI与模型模拟值分别应用两种同化算法得到VTCI的单点同化结果,继而应用到区域尺度。结果表明,在VTCI单点实验中,两种同化结果均能结合观测值与模拟值的优点而更加符合VTCI先验知识。在两者区域尺度的同化实验中,由于引入了模型的模拟值,同化后的VTCI区域间纹理更好,减少了原观测图像中相邻像元值陡升陡降的情况,提高了基于VTCI的干旱监测的准确性。通过对比2种同化算法在区域尺度上的同化结果与观测值的差值的概率分布及其均方根误差,表明在以旬为步长的VTCI同化实验中,EnKF方法适用性更强。

       

      Abstract: The objective of this study was to combine the remotely sensed Vegetation Temperature Condition Index (VTCI) and CERES-Wheat model to get high accuracy of drought monitoring results by using two data assimilation approaches, the Four-dimensional Variational (4DVAR) and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). VTCI was retrieved from remote sensing data (AVHRR) for drought monitoring, and the surface soil moisture was simulated from the CERES-Wheat model using ground survey data and meteorological data in Guanzhong Plain of Shaanxi province. The simulated VTCI values in the study area were achieved by employing the established empirical linear model between retrieved VTCI and soil surface moisture. The assimilation was carried out in the eight sampling sites and the whole study area, respectively. After establishing the assimilation system, the retrieved VTCI values and the simulated ones of the eight sampling sites were used to test the two assimilation approaches. The results showed that the assimilated VTCI values of the sites were more accurate and closer to the real ones. The texture of the assimilated VTCI image of the whole study area was more smooth than that of the retrieved one, and the sudden changes between the adjacent pixels in the assimilated image were reduced compared to those of the retrieved VTCI image. Based on the prior knowledge of the spatial drought occurrence in the study area, the assimilated VTCI values could get a high accuracy of drought monitoring results. After comparing the distributions of the differences and root mean square errors between the two assimilated VTCI values and the retrieved ones in the study area, it can be concluded that the EnKF approach has stronger applicability and higher accuracy than those of the 4DVAR approach.

       

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