农业旱灾脆弱性定量评估的可变模糊分析法

    Quantitative estimation for vulnerability of agricultural drought disaster using variable fuzzy analysis method

    • 摘要: 农业旱灾脆弱性反映了整个农业系统对干旱的适应、反应和应对能力,农业旱灾脆弱性的研究对一定致灾强度下的灾害预防有积极作用。该文在根据对农业旱灾脆弱性相关研究的基础上,给出衡阳市农业干旱脆弱性评估分级区间界限值,根据可变模糊集合理论,提出农业旱灾脆弱性定量评估的多指标多级别的可变模糊分析方法。定量评估分析结果表明,衡阳市农业旱灾脆弱性的级别全为III级,其强弱的排序为衡南、衡阳、常宁、衡东、衡山、耒阳、祁东,较客观地反映了衡阳市的农业干旱脆弱性等级和强弱排序。

       

      Abstract: The vulnerability of agricultural drought disaster reflects adaptability, reaction ability and coping ability of agricultural system for drought, and its research has positive effect for disaster prevention under certain strength of disaster-causing. The paper presented threshold value of grade interval of estimation for vulnerability of agricultural drought in Hengyang city. According to variable fuzzy set theory, the variable fuzzy analysis method of multiple attribute and grades was proposed for quantitative estimation for vulnerability of agricultural drought disaster. The results of quantitative estimation showed that the grade of vulnerability of agricultural drought disaster was at grade three in Hengyang city, the order of strength was Hengnan, Hengyang, Changning, Hengdong, Hengshan, Leiyang, Qidong, which objectively reflected the actual situation of vulnerability grade of agricultural drought disaster.

       

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