宁夏南部山区农户土地利用决策模拟

    Simulation of household’s decision behavior of arable land use in mountain area of southern Ningxia

    • 摘要: 伴随着工业化和城镇化的快速发展,农村劳动力务农机会成本不断上升,影响了农户土地利用决策行为。为理解这一过程,该文以宁夏南部山区为例,采用农户调查数据,基于农户决策机制和线性规划理论,构建农户土地利用决策模型;并利用所建模型分析劳动力务农机会成本上升对案例区农户土地利用决策行为的影响。结果表明:在粮食和劳动力市场健全的条件下,随着农业劳动力务农机会成本的上升,劳动力成为影响农户土地利用决策关键因素,即农户依据其成员的比较优势,让青壮年劳动力外出务工,老人、妇女从事农业生产;留守劳动力倾向从市场购进所需粮食,选择种植马铃薯、西瓜等劳动生产率更高的农作物;农户选择撂荒部分耕地,特别是贫瘠耕地。该模型能够解释研究区农户的土地利用决策行为。

       

      Abstract: With the development of industrialization and urbanization, the opportunity cost of farm labor is increasing, which will affect the farmer’s decision. Using statistic and survey data and taking mountain area of southern Ningxia as an example, based on farmer decision-making mechanism and framework of linear programming theory, an indigenous farm-household model was constructed to study the impacts of rising opportunity cost of farm labor on land use change. Results showed that under the condition of the labor market and food market function, with the rising of opportunity cost of farm labor, farm labor become one of the key factors that affected farm household’s decision-making. Namely, the labors with the greatest comparative advantage would be allocated in wage employment, and the labors with comparative disadvantage such as old man or woman would be allocated in on-farm activities. Household should prefer to purchase subsistence goods through market and plant crops with higher labor productivity such as potato and watermelon et al. Some land, especially consolidated land was abandoned. The farm-household model could explain the making-decision behavior of household land use.

       

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