Abstract: Grain production level is significant for the research of grain security, which incorporates various connotations, but lack of an effective method to predict the level in current research. Comparative analysis and mathematics estimation were employed as the main methods in this research. To interpret the connotation of grain production level and establish the prediction method, firstly, the substantial connotation of grain production level was redefined though analysis and identifying the complex relation among grain yield, grain production capacity and grain production level. Then base on the mathematical analysis between grain production level and grain yield, prediction method was established. Taking 8 counties of Dongting Lake area as an example, grain production levels in 2007 and 2008 were predicted, and then the grain production was verified with grain yield. The results show that the discrepancies between grain production level and grain yield are consistent with the condition of that years. Furthermore, grain production levels of the 8 counties from 2011 to 2015 were predicted. The research can provide academic and methodological references to the grain production study.