基于多因素信息融合的中国粮食安全预警系统

    China’s grain security warning based on multifactor information fusion

    • 摘要: 中国是世界上粮食消耗最大的国家,随着社会经济的发展,中国的粮食安全备受全球瞩目。粮食安全的评估涉及众多因素,既有定量数据,又有定性信息。因此,为了全面地对中国的粮食安全进行预警,该文提出了一种基于信息融合的多因素粮食安全评估方法。新方法将各个信息源的定量定性信息转换为基本概率指派函数,利用层次分析方法(Analytic Hierarchy Process)确定各个属性的权重,基于Dempster组合规则实现了多因素的融合。依据1995-2007年的统计年鉴数据, 对该文方法的有效性进行了验证。结果表明:该文所提出的信息融合方法能够正确客观地反映出粮食安全警度。

       

      Abstract: China is the largest food consumption country in the world. With the social and economic development, China’s food security has become a global attention. Grain security research involves many uncertain factors: as well as quantitative and qualitative information. In order to get the grain security status comprehensively, we proposed a method to evaluate risk in grain security based on multifactor information fusion. In the method, the quantitative and qualitative information were used to construct the basic probability assignment, and the attribute weights was got based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. After that, the multifactor fusion results were got based on the Dempster combination rule. The effectiveness of the method was verified with a numeric example that the data comes from the yearbook of China in 2007. The Results show that the method is effective and can correctly reflect the grain safety warning degrees.

       

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