Abstract:
The records of daily solar radiation (Rs, MJ·m-2·d-1) are the important inputs for crop simulation models. However, for some model users, Rs at longer temporal intervals are more available than that at daily scale. The objective of this study was to analyze the sensitivity of simulated crop growth and production using CERES-Maize and GROPGRO-Soybean, two widely used crop growth models, to uncertainty in Rs at different time scales (5-day, 10-day, and monthly). Daily radiation data (1961-1990) from Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) for the state of Georgia, USA were used to create 5-day, 10-day, and monthly mean daily Rs data sets. Datasets related to daily Rs were used as background baselines. The overall performance of the models was not significantly affected by Rs under the studied time scales. Within locations, the simulated days to anthesis and grain yields from 5-day, 10-day, and monthly Rs were close to that from daily Rs for maize and soybean under rainfed and irrigated conditions, respectively. Mean values of relative mean bias error (RMBE), mean bias error (MBE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the simulated days to anthesis were 0, 0 and 3.5 d for the two crops under the studied scenarios, respectively. The simulated yields were underestimated for maize and overestimated for soybean using 5-day, 10-day, and monthly Rs for both rainfed and irrigated conditions, respectively. Under rainfed and irrigated conditions, the average RMBE and RMSE were -0.59%, 120 kg/hm2 and -0.52%, 129 kg/hm2 for maize yield, and 5%, 152 kg/hm2 and 4.7%, 165 kg/hm2 for soybean, respectively. Short-term bias in the difference between evaluated time scales and daily scale could affect the outputs of the crop models. Under the scenarios evaluated, CGOPGRO-Soybean model showed higher sensitivity to changes in multi-temporal Rs and water regimes than CERES-Maize model. Based on the results of this study, it can be concluded that 5-day, 10-day, and monthly mean daily Rs could be used as an input for crop growth simulation models when daily Rs are not available.