基于logistic回归模型的矿区土地利用演变驱动力分析

    Driving force analysis of land use change based on Logistic regression model in mining area

    • 摘要: 为探究矿区土地利用演变规律和驱动机制,该文基于1990年、2000年和2008年的遥感影像,借助遥感、GIS技术及数理统计软件,分析了徐州贾汪矿区近18 a的土地利用变化特征,在此基础上,选取了多个经济社会及空间距离因子,运用多元logistic回归模型,探讨了该区土地利用变化的驱动因素。结果表明:1990-2008年间,研究区内土地利用变化的主要特征是耕地、林地持续减少,而建设用地和水域迅速增加,草地缓慢增加,整体处于不平衡的状态;通过对耕地和林地变化的logistic回归模型分析,耕地变化在第1阶段(1990-2000年)的主要驱动因素是最近采矿点的距离和到农村居民点的距离,第2阶段(2000-2008年)较为重要的变量有到农村居民点的距离、农业人口密度和到公路的距离;2000-2008年间林地变化较为重要的驱动因素有高程、到最近采矿点的距离和到公路的距离。研究结果对矿区生态环境保护、土地资源优化配置及可持续利用具有重要的指导作用。

       

      Abstract: In order to investigate the evolution and driving mechanism of land use in mining area, land use change of Jiawang mining area in Xuzhou was analyzed based on the TM/ETM images in 1990, 2000 and 2008, using remote sensing, GIS and software SPSS. With the Logistic regression model, the driving factors of land use change were analyzed from economic, social and spatial distance factors. The results showed that the characteristics of land use change in the study area were that the cultivated land and forest land continuously decreased, constructive land and water body rapidly increased, and grassland slightly increased, which were in an unbalanced state overall. The analysis results of logistic regression model for cultivated land and forest land change indicated that the change of cultivated land in first period (1990-2000) was dominated by the factors of "distance to the nearest mining area" and "distance to the nearest rural settlement", and priority factors in the second period (2000-2008) were "distance to the nearest rural settlement", "farmer's population density", and "distance to the nearest road". Decrease of forest land was affected by "elevation" and "distance to the nearest mining area" from 2000 to 2008. These results provide an important guide for ecological and environmental conservation, optimal allocation and sustainable utilization of land resources in mining areas.

       

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