基于蚁群优化最小二乘支持向量回归机的河蟹养殖溶解氧预测模型

    Dissolved oxygen prediction model of eriocheir sinensis culture based on least squares support vector regression optimized by ant colony algorithm

    • 摘要: 养殖池塘溶解氧是河蟹赖以生存的重要指标,及时准确地掌握溶解氧浓度变化趋势是确保高密度河蟹健康养殖的关键。为提高溶解氧预测精度和效率,该文提出了蚁群算法(ACA)优化最小二乘支持向量回归机(LSSVR)的河蟹养殖溶解氧预测方法。采用蚁群算法对最小二乘支持向量回归机的模型参数进行优化,并以自动获取的最佳参数组合构建溶解氧与其影响因子间非线性预测模型。利用该模型对江苏宜兴市2010年7月20日~7月28日期间高密度养殖池塘溶解氧进行预测。研究表明,该预测模型取得较好的预测效果,与支持向量回归机和BP神经网络相比,模型评价指标均方根误差、相对均方误差均值、平均绝对误差和和决定系数和运行时间分别为0.0328、0.0016、0.0448、0.9916和3.3275s均优于其他预测方法,ACA-LSSVR模型不仅计算复杂度低、收敛速度快、预测精度高、泛化能力强,还能满足实际高密度河蟹养殖溶解氧管理的需要,为其他领域的水质预测提供参考。

       

      Abstract: The dissolved oxygen in aquaculture ponds is crucial to the survival of eriocheir sinensis. Grasping the trend of the dissolved oxygen concentration timely and accurately is the key for the high-density healthy eriocheir sinensis culture. In order to solve the low prediction accuracy and bad robustness of the traditional methods in dissolved oxygen content prediction, the combined ant colony algorithm (ACA) was combined with least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) algorithm to construct a non-linear prediction model for predictin the dissolved oxygen content changing in intensive aquaculture eriocheir sinensis cultures. The hybrid ACA-LSSVR algorithm inherits from advantages of this regression model support vector machine and applies linear least squares criteria to the loss function instead of traditional quadratic programming method. Thus it effectively increases the training speed. But it restricts the prediction accuracy and performance whether the kernel function and parameter calibration are appropriate. Therefore, we choose the Gauss RBF kernel function as the kernel function of the least squares support vector regression model, which needs few parameters to set and can well process high dimensional space nonlinear relationship. Moreover, the global heuristic search ant colony optimization method was used to seek the optimal hyper parameters needed in the least squares support vector regression model, which overcoming the blindness and the impact of human factors of the trial-and-error method in parameter selection of support vector regression model and accelerating model convergence rate. The combinations of the best parameters were obtained automatically after the optimization, from which the nonlinear prediction model between the dissolved oxygen and the impact factors was constructed. Based on the prediction model, the dissolved oxygen changing was predicted for a high-density aquaculture pond during July 20, 2010 to July 28, 2010 in Yixing city, Jiangsu province. Experimental results show that the proposed prediction model of ACO-LSSVR has good prediction effect than the support vector regression machine and BP neural network method. Under the same experimental conditions, the relative RMSE, MSRE, MAE, R2 and the running time differences between the ACA-LSSVR and standard SVR models are 56.1%, 36%%, 30.8%, 0.9% and 1.5651 s respectively. It is clear that ACA optimization is better than the trial-and-error method to get the LSSVR parameters. The relative RMSE, MSRE, MAE, R2 and the running time differences between the ACA-LSSVR and BPNN models are 67.9%, 60%, 50.8%, 4.7% and 2.3464 s respectively. It is obvious that ACA-LSSVR is more accurate than BPNN. The prediction model has low computational complexity, fast convergence rate, high forecast accuracy and generalization ability. It can meet the actual demand for the dissolved oxygen controlling in the high density eriocheir sinensis culture and provide a reference for other areas of water quality predictions.

       

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