农田土壤铅、镉含量影响因素地理加权回归模型分析

    Analysis on influence factors of soil Pb and Cd in agricultural soil of Changsha suburb based on geographically weighted regression model

    • 摘要: 为了定量分析土壤重金属含量的影响因素,以长沙城郊农田土壤Pb、Cd为例,采用传统回归模型(ordinary least squares, OLS)和地理加权回归模型(geographically weighted regression, GWR)分析比较了土壤Pb、Cd含量与影响因素间的相关关系。结果表明:长沙城郊农田土壤Pb、Cd含量存在空间自相关性,Pb、Cd的GWR模型拟合度较OLS模型高,残差不存在空间自相关,GWR模型能更好地解释土壤Pb、Cd与影响因素变量的空间异质性。土壤Pb与Cd含量呈极显著正相关;土壤pH值、有机质、氮磷含量是影响土壤Pb、Cd含量的重要因素;离河流、城镇、工矿建设用地的距离对于城郊农田土壤Pb、Cd含量也有一定影响,土壤Pb、Cd的"高-高"集聚区(土壤Pb或Cd含量高的区域被Pb或Cd含量高的其他区域所包围,区域土壤Pb或Cd含量水平较高,且空间差异程度较小)和离河流、城镇、工矿建设用地较近的农田是Pb、Cd污染风险防控的重点区域。该研究可为定量分析区域土壤重金属含量的空间结构与影响因素提供参考,为长沙城郊农田土壤重金属污染的防控提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Contamination of suburban, agricultural soils with heavy metals draws great attention because of its potential threat to food safety and its detrimental effects on the ecosystem. The origins of soil heavy metals in the suburban interface are usually controlled by many factors, such as parent material, industrial activities, and agriculture. To decrease heavy metals pollution risks effectively in suburban areas and further to establish reliable protection measures, it is quite necessary to understand their sources and spatial patterns.The ordinary linear regression model (OLS) has been frequently used to analyze the relationship between soil heavy metals and their influential factors. However, OLS is only in a global or an average sense to estimate parameters, and it is unable to reflect spatial local variation or test spatial non-stationarity.Geographically weighted regression models (GWR) are a powerful tool for exploring spatial heterogeneity. The underlying idea of GWR is that parameters may be estimated anywhere in the study area given a dependent variable and a set of one or more independent variables which have been measured at known locations. Not only can it test spatial non-stationarity, but it can also provide the corresponding solutions. As a local model, GWR modeling has been applied in research on urban housing land prices and the spatial factors of economic development, but it has seldom been applied to the origins and spatial structure of soil heavy metals.A survey was conducted in this study to determine the possible sources of heavy metals in agricultural soils of the suburban area of Changsha. A total of 513 surface soil samples were collected, and the concentrations of Pb and Cd were analyzed. Typical influences on soil Pb and Cd concentration were identified from soil properties and geographic locations, such as soil pH, organic matter, alkali-hydro nitrogen, rapidly available phosphorus, rapidly available potassium, slowly available potassium, the distance from cropland to town, the distance from cropland to settlement, the distance from cropland to industrial construction sites, and the distance from cropland to a river. The OLS and GWR were applied to determine the relationships among both the influential factors and their spatial structure.The results indicate that spatial autocorrelations were detected for Pb and Cd. The high-high spatial clusters districts had high concentrations of Pb and Cd and were the most important regions for controlling the pollution risk of Pb and Cd in agricultural soil of the suburban area of Changsha. The GWR models for Pb and Cd had a better goodness-of-fit than OLS models and indicated the same tendency of spatial correlation between the Pb and Cd measured values with their estimated values. Soil Pb was highly significantly and positively related with Cd. The concentrations of soil pH, organic matter, alkali-hydro nitrogen and rapidly available phosphorus were the important influential factors for the content of Pb and Cd. The distance from cropland to river, from cropland to town, and from cropland to construction sites also had some influence on the concentrations of Pb and Cd in the agricultural soils of suburban Changsha.

       

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