基于熵权TOPSIS模型的土地利用绩效评价及关联分析

    Evaluation and correlation analysis of land use performance based on entropy-weight TOPSIS method

    • 摘要: 为深入了解区域土地利用的综合效果和发展能力,把握土地资源利用的发展方向,该文从经济效益、社会效应和生态安全3个方面选取了16个指标构建了土地利用绩效评价框架,采用基于熵权的TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution)模型,评价了北京市顺义区在1996-2010年的土地利用绩效状态,并运用灰色关联方法分析了影响土地利用绩效的重点因素。研究结果:1996-2000年,顺义区处于向工业化转变的过程中,土地利用综合绩效变化稳定并表现出略微下降的趋势;2001-2010年,在城镇化和新型工业化的推动下,土地利用综合绩效快速上升,并保持良好的增长态势。土地利用经济绩效在1996-2002年上升缓慢,自2003年开始大幅度提升;土地社会绩效在1996-2000年变化相对稳定,之后呈现整体上升趋势;土地生态绩效在1996-2000年变化平稳,2000-2005年表现为急速下降,之后有所起伏,至研究期末开始抬升。土地利用绩效变化较好地印证了3个“五年”计划下的土地利用重点,表明各个阶段的土地利用政策得到了有效地执行。土地利用社会效应与生态安全因素对土地利用整体质量的影响更加显著,而工业发展对经济绩效的推动作用明显,导致人均土地资源享有水平迅速变化的城镇化因素,成为反映土地利用社会效应的重点,生态用地则成为影响土地利用生态安全绩效变化的主导因素。

       

      Abstract: As more and more attention has been paid to the problems of land resources in China, land use performance evaluation has become a synthetic method to evaluate the rationality and effectiveness of regional land resource allocation, which is helpful in quantitative analyses of land use. From the economic benefit, social effect and ecological security aspects, this paper selected 16 indicators to establish a land-use performance evaluation framework. Then, performance evaluation was performed on the land-use based TOPSIS method in the Shunyi District from 1996 to 2010, in which weights of indicators were determined by an entropy-weighted method. Furthermore, key impact factors on land-use performance were analyzed via grey correlation analysis. The results indicate that 1) Land use performance in Shunyi District showed an overall growth trend from 1996 to 2010. That trend can be further divided into a steady and modest growth period from 1996 to 2000, in which Shunyi took its industrialization course; and an accelerated growth period from 2001 to 2010, in which Shunyi showed high-speed development based on former primitive accumulation on the background of urbanization and new industrialization modes. 2) The economic coefficient of land performance grew slowly from 1996 to 2002, with a more dramatic increase since 2003. The social effect coefficient of land-use performance reflects the changes of land resources per capita, which was steady from 1996 to 2000 and decreased evidently in 2001, but showed an upward trend from 2001 to 2010. The ecological coefficient of land performance steadily changed from 1996 to 2000, and decreased from 2001 to 2005, but alternated up and down in the period from 2006 to 2010. 3) Changes of land-use performance reflect the sound execution of key points of land use policies in corresponding “Five-year Plan”. 4) Social and ecological factors of land-use performance have more impact on overall land use, and urbanization is dominant among all impact factors. 5) Industrialization is the main driving force for the increase of economic benefit of land-use performance. Urbanization becomes the key issue concerning societal development and fairness, because of its high relation with rapid changes of land resources per capita. Land for ecological use is the dominant factor on ecological performance of land use under the pressure of resource and environment. Finally, the study indicates that the TOPSIS model based on an entropy weighting method is effective because of the clear thinking and rational calculation for land-use performance. Intensive land-use, spatial carrying capacity of land for ecological use and environment protection shall be highlighted in the land use planning of Shunyi District. The analysis results are helpful to examine whether land use policies are enforced, and provide methods and ideas for the comprehensive evaluation and the optimal allocation of regional land resources.

       

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