王怡宁, 张晓萌, 路璐, 顾南, 王振龙, 刘猛, 王国庆. 通径分析结合BP神经网络方法估算夏玉米作物系数及蒸散量[J]. 农业工程学报, 2020, 36(7): 109-116. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.07.012
    引用本文: 王怡宁, 张晓萌, 路璐, 顾南, 王振龙, 刘猛, 王国庆. 通径分析结合BP神经网络方法估算夏玉米作物系数及蒸散量[J]. 农业工程学报, 2020, 36(7): 109-116. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.07.012
    Wang Yining, Zhang Xiaomeng, Lu Lu, Gu Nan, Wang Zhenlong, Liu Meng, Wang Guoqing. Estimation of crop coefficient and evapotranspiration of summer maize by path analysis combined with BP neural network[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2020, 36(7): 109-116. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.07.012
    Citation: Wang Yining, Zhang Xiaomeng, Lu Lu, Gu Nan, Wang Zhenlong, Liu Meng, Wang Guoqing. Estimation of crop coefficient and evapotranspiration of summer maize by path analysis combined with BP neural network[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2020, 36(7): 109-116. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.07.012

    通径分析结合BP神经网络方法估算夏玉米作物系数及蒸散量

    Estimation of crop coefficient and evapotranspiration of summer maize by path analysis combined with BP neural network

    • 摘要: 准确估算蒸散量对于精准管理农田水分至关重要。为了解作物系数的动态特征,准确估算作物需水量,使用叶面积指数和气象要素模拟玉米全生育期作物系数及蒸散量。利用2018年五道沟实验站气象和称重式蒸渗仪实测数据,运用通径分析法筛选影响作物系数的关键因子,建立无雨期不同地下水埋深下作物系数模型,以此估算蒸散量。结果表明:1 m埋深下全生育期作物系数平均绝对误差为0.04 mm/d,相关系数为0.94,其中初期、发育期、中期和后期平均绝对误差分别为0.06、0.09、0.05和0.03 mm/d。3 m埋深下全生育期作物系数平均绝对误差为0.08 mm/d,相关系数为0.92,各生育期平均绝对误差分别为0.11、0.10、0.07和0.03 mm/d,利用温度、风速和叶面积指数模拟作物系数精度较高。1 m 埋深全生育期ET平均绝对误差为0.72 mm/d,各生育阶段平均绝对误差分别为0.56、059、0.66和0.45 mm/d。3 m埋深全生育期ET平均绝对误差为0.73 mm/d,各生育阶段ET平均绝对误差分别为0.82、0.98、0.68和0.29 mm/d。不同时间尺度下(1、3、5 d) 2种埋深ET模拟值与实际值一致性指数均接近1.00,平均绝对误差小于1.0 mm/d,预报准确率达70%。随预报时间尺度的增加,预报精度提高。该方法可用于夏玉米蒸散发量计算。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is critical for the precise management of farmland. Crop coefficient method is widely used to estimate ET. This study aimed to establish a crop coefficient model by meteorological factors combined with leaf area index so as to accurately estimate ET. A experiment was carried out at Wudaogou Hydrological Experimental Station. Meteorological and soil parameters were measured by local weather station and weighing lysimeters in 2018. These parameters included leaf area index, temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, net radiation, soil heat flux, wind direction, water surface evaporation, wind speed, atmospheric pressure and the soil moisture content of different layers. The path analysis method was used to screen the key factors affecting crop coefficient. And the model based on BP neural network was established to estimate the crop coefficient and ET of summer maize at different groundwater depths (1 and 3 m) in the rain free period. The results showed that the leaf area index, temperature and wind speed were critical factors affecting the crop coefficient in both at depth of 1 and 3 m. Moreover, in the depth of 3 m, the crop coefficient was significantly affected by the soil moisture content at depth of 130 cm. The model could simulate well crop coefficient. The average absolute error in the whole growth period at depth of 1 m was 0.04 mm/d, and the correlation coefficient was 0.94. The average absolute errors at the initial, developmental, intermediate and late stages were 0.06, 0.09, 0.05 and 0.03 mm/d, respectively. In the depth of 3 m, the average absolute error was 0.08 mm/d, and the correlation coefficient was 0.92. During the four growth periods, the average absolute errors were 0.11, 0.10, 0.07 and 0.03 mm/d, respectively. Therefore, the crop coefficients model considering temperature, wind speed and leaf area index had high accuracy. Then, the model was used to estimate the ET and the results showed that the estimation at the depth of 1 m was better than that at 3 m. The accuracy of estimating ET at both depths was high. In the whole growth period, the average absolute error of ET at depth of 1 m was 0.72 mm/d, and the daily forecast ability at different growth stages was also well. At each growth stage, the average absolute errors of ET were 0.56, 059, 0.66 and 0.45 mm/d, respectively. At depth of 3 m, the average absolute error of ET in the whole growth period was 0.73 mm/d. At each growth stage, the average absolute errors of ET were 0.82, 098, 0.68 and 0.29 mm/d, respectively. At different time scales (1, 3 and 5 d) , the concordance index of estimated ET was about 1.00 and the average absolute error was less than 1.0 mm/d at different depths. The absolute error decreased and the consistency index appeared the opposite as the forecast time scale increased. It indicated that the forecast accuracy and forecast ability increased. Thus, the method above is reliable to estimate the ET of summer maize and it can meet the forecasting requirements of irrigation planning and agricultural water management.

       

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