冯凯, 粟晓玲. 基于三维视角的农业干旱对气象干旱的时空响应关系[J]. 农业工程学报, 2020, 36(8): 103-113. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.08.013
    引用本文: 冯凯, 粟晓玲. 基于三维视角的农业干旱对气象干旱的时空响应关系[J]. 农业工程学报, 2020, 36(8): 103-113. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.08.013
    Feng Kai, Su Xiaoling. Spatiotemporal response characteristics of agricultural drought to meteorological drought from a three-dimensional perspective[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2020, 36(8): 103-113. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.08.013
    Citation: Feng Kai, Su Xiaoling. Spatiotemporal response characteristics of agricultural drought to meteorological drought from a three-dimensional perspective[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2020, 36(8): 103-113. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.08.013

    基于三维视角的农业干旱对气象干旱的时空响应关系

    Spatiotemporal response characteristics of agricultural drought to meteorological drought from a three-dimensional perspective

    • 摘要: 气象干旱是农业干旱的驱动因素,研究农业干旱对气象干旱的响应特征对理解干旱演变机制具有重要作用,而以往研究大多忽略了干旱的时空连续特征。该研究以SPEI和aSPI分别表征气象干旱和农业干旱,基于三维干旱识别方法提取2类干旱的历时、面积、烈度、强度、中心以及迁移距离6个干旱特征,分析黑河流域1961-2014年干旱时空连续动态演变特征;提出时空尺度干旱事件匹配准则,确定存在时空联系的气象-农业干旱事件,探讨气象、农业干旱时空响应特征并建立干旱特征响应模型。结果表明:1)从三维视角可准确全面地认识干旱事件时空动态演变过程及区域干旱发展规律,研究区秋冬春连旱一般起源于中游中部,沿东南方向逐渐向上游迁移并消亡,且干旱迁移速率在上游相对较快;2)基于时空尺度的干旱事件对匹配结果能够保证时空尺度上气象、农业干旱的复杂关系更接近实际,为准确分析气象-农业干旱时空响应特征提供保障;3)研究区气象-农业干旱历时、干旱面积和干旱烈度的最优响应模型分别为二次多项式、指数函数和指数函数。该研究为准确评估干旱时空动态演变规律及干旱响应关系提供了新思路。

       

      Abstract: Meteorological drought is an important driving factor of agriculture drought in their inherent correlation. Characteristics and estimation of agricultural drought response to meteorological drought can contribute to understanding the mechanism of drought evolution, and assessment of drought mitigation measures. However, most previous studies are lacking in the spatiotemporal continuity of drought evolution. In this study, the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution of droughts in the Heihe River Basin during 1961-2014 was analyzed using a three-dimensional identification method, where the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and agriculture standardized precipitation index (aSPI) were used to evaluate the meteorological drought and agricultural drought. A spatiotemporal matching criterion of drought event was proposed to determine the event pair of meteorological-agricultural drought, and thereby a response model of drought variables was established based on the spatiotemporal characteristics of agriculture drought response to meteorological drought. The results showed that 1) three-dimensional perspective can benefit to recognition for the dynamic evolution rules of drought events. Six drought variables were selected as indicators, including drought duration, area, severity, intensity, center and migration trajectory, to analyze the drought evolution for Heihe River basin in 1961-2014. Specifically, the most severe meteorological drought event (No.25) originated in Linze county in June 1970, showing the drought-affected area of only 843.14 km2. The drought spread rapidly to the whole study area in July, with the drought-affected area of 42 400 km2, accounting for about 87% of the study area, and the drought center is located in the middle of Sunan county. The subsequent drought moved approximately 13.86 km in the northwest direction from August to September 1970 with the decrease of drought intensity and affected area. In the next two months, the drought areas continuously decreased, and mainly concentrated in Gaotai, Linze and Qilian county. The second peak of this drought occurred from December 1970 to March 1971, the drought-affected areas accounting for 54%-71% of the study area, with the drought severity of 43 700 km2•month. The drought center moved 94.96 km toward southeast to eastern Qilian county, and finally diminished there from April to July 1971. The continuous droughts in autumn, winter and spring generally originated from the middle-stream, and gradually migrated to the upstream along the southeast direction, particularly that the rate of drought migration was relatively high in the upstream. 2) The matching results of drought events based on spatiotemporal scale can ensure that the complex relationship between meteorological and agricultural drought well agrees with the practical situation, with the high accuracy of response analysis. The drought events after successful matching demonstrate the specific characteristics, including prolonged duration, enhanced intensity and increase affected area. 3) The optimal response models of drought duration, area and severity between meteorological and agricultural drought follow the quadratic polynomial, the exponential function and exponential function, respectively. This finding can provide an insightful understanding to accurate evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution and the response relationship of droughts.

       

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