Abstract:
Abstract: Cultivated land has always been one of the most important fundamentals to maintain food security. This study aims to clarify the dynamic change of the cultivated land pattern and the spatial driving factors in the main grain producing areas in China. The study area was also taken as the Shenyang city, a typical area in the Lower Liaohe Plain. The GIS technology and R programming were utilized to collect the data sources from 1980 to 2000 and 2000 to 2018, such as land use, point of interest (POI), and the delimitation of permanent basic farmland. The cultivated land pattern was then obtained using the change trajectory analysis, the center of gravity migration, and the landscape pattern index. The representative driving factors of cultivated land pattern were extracted from the natural conditions, spatial distance, geographic space, and policy elements. A random forest was used to identify the degree of significance of the spatial driving factors during the variation in the cultivated land pattern at the spatial scale of city, urban and county areas. The results showed that: 1) The pattern of cultivated land was relatively stable from 1980 to 2000, where the center of gravity of cultivated land moved to the southwest by 1.418 0 km. There was a serious loss of cultivated land from 2000 to 2018, where the center of gravity of cultivated land moved 2.32 0 km to the northwest, indicating an accelerated migration speed. 2) The changes of cultivated land from 1980 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2018 both presented the characteristics of transfer-in and transfer-out, indicating a quite different sharpness. Specifically, there was a slow transfer of cultivated land into and out of cultivated land from 1980 to 2000. The transfer-out area of cultivated land was much higher than that of transfer-in from 2000 to 2018, where the transfer-out area of cultivated land was mainly distributed around the urban area. 3) There were some differences in the significance of spatial driving factors at different regional scales. On the whole, the spatial distance, geospatial and policy factors greatly contributed to the change of cultivated land pattern, especially the distance from rural homesteads, the distance from rural roads, and the space of transportation facilities. The natural conditions (elevation, slope) determined the distribution pattern of cultivated land, but indicatied a relatively little influence on the change of cultivated land pattern. Consequently, the random forest can be expected to effectively quantify the spatial driving factors of cultivated land pattern. The finding can provide a strong reference to construct a long-term plan for the protection and sustainable development of cultivated land resources.