黄心怡, 赵小敏, 郭熙, 丁徽, 陈蕾, 张佳佳. 鄱阳湖平原土地利用变化对生态网络稳定性影响的模拟分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2022, 38(9): 277-287. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.09.031
    引用本文: 黄心怡, 赵小敏, 郭熙, 丁徽, 陈蕾, 张佳佳. 鄱阳湖平原土地利用变化对生态网络稳定性影响的模拟分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2022, 38(9): 277-287. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.09.031
    Huang Xinyi, Zhao Xiaomin, Guo Xi, Ding Hui, Chen Lei, Zhang Jiajia. Simulation analysis of the effects of land use change on ecological network stability in Poyang Lake Plain[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2022, 38(9): 277-287. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.09.031
    Citation: Huang Xinyi, Zhao Xiaomin, Guo Xi, Ding Hui, Chen Lei, Zhang Jiajia. Simulation analysis of the effects of land use change on ecological network stability in Poyang Lake Plain[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2022, 38(9): 277-287. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.09.031

    鄱阳湖平原土地利用变化对生态网络稳定性影响的模拟分析

    Simulation analysis of the effects of land use change on ecological network stability in Poyang Lake Plain

    • 摘要: 土地利用变化是改变区域景观结构和生态特征的主要原因,也是影响区域生态稳定性的重要原因。以鄱阳湖平原地区为研究区,基于2000、2010和2020年的3期遥感影像数据,对鄱阳湖平原地区不同情景下2030年土地利用变化进行定量模拟,并采用连通鲁棒性方法对生态网络的稳定性进行分析。结果表明:1)鄱阳湖平原地区未来土地利用变化中耕地、建设用地面积变化最大,其中,城市快速增长情景(Fast Urban Growth, FUG)下的建设用地面积增长最多,较2020年增长了70.27%;耕地面积在3种未来情景中面积均有减少;林地面积在常规发展情景(Conventional Development Scenario, CDS)、FUG和生态保护情景(Ecological Conservation Scenario,ECS)下较2020年分别减少了6.90%、7.23%和6.70%。2)通过景观连通性评价得到鄱阳湖平原地区2030年CDS、FUG和ECS情景下的生态源地面积分别为2 464.2、2 666.72和3 141.88 km2;识别生态廊道169、255和299条;可以看出,ECS情景能保留更多的生态源地和生态廊道。3)3种未来模拟情景中,FUG下生态廊道"障碍点"数量最多,为23处,CDS情景下的生态廊道"夹点"数量最多,为117处,ECS情景具有最少的"障碍点"和"夹点",因而具有更稳定的网络结构特征和功能;4)"随机攻击"模式下,CDS、FUG和ECS情景的连通鲁棒性均呈现缓慢的下降趋势,生态网络稳定临界值分别为89%、90%和90%的节点删除比;在"蓄意攻击"模式下,CDS、FUG和ECS三种未来模拟情景中,ECS情景呈现更高的网络稳定性临界值,为55%的节点失效比,由此可知,ECS下的生态网络稳定性最高。研究结果可为鄱阳湖平原地区维护生态系统稳定、生态保护管理策略的制定提供定量参考和决策依据,也可为鄱阳湖平原地区生态空间规划提供有效支撑,也为类似区域的生态网络研究提供案例借鉴。

       

      Abstract: Complex ecological environment has posed ever-increasing obstacles to regional ecological security and protection in recent years. Land-use change has been one of the most important indicators for the landscape structure and ecosystem evolution under accelerated urbanization. It is highly urgent to enhance ecosystem conservation for high quality and stability. Ecological networks with ecological corridors and nodes have been also necessary for the process of territorial space planning and ecological civilization construction for ecosystem protection and restoration. Taking the Poyang Lake Plain area as the study area, a quantitative simulation was carried out for the future land-use change under different scenarios using the remote sensing image, planning, and ecological data in 2000, 2010, and 2020. A CA-Markov model was used to predict the land use distribution in the study area in 2030, under the scenarios of Conventional Development Scenario (CDS), Fast Urban Growth (FUG), and Ecological Conservation Scenario (ECS). An evaluation was made on the landscape connectivity to determine the ecological source under various circumstances. The ecological corridors, "Barrier points", and "Pinch points" were retrieved to construct the comprehensive resistance surface using the circuit theory and the Linkage Mapper Arc10.TBX tool. The ecological network verified the stability under different attack modes using the robustness of network connectivity. The results showed as follows. 1) There was the most change in the area of cultivated and construction land in the future land-use change. Specifically, the area of construction land under the FUG increased the most, up 70.27 % from 2020. The cropland area decreased in the three future scenarios. Forest land area under CDS, FUG and ECS decreased by 6.90 %, 7.23 % and 6.70 % respectively compared with 2020. 2) The ecological sources areas under CDS, FUG and ECS scenarios in 2030 were 2 464.2, 2 666.72 and 3 141.88 km2, respectively, where 169, 255, and 299 ecological corridors were identified, respectively, according to the landscape connectivity assessment. Consequently, the ECS scenarios wad retained more ecological sources and ecological corridors. 3) Among the three future scenarios, the FUG and CDS presented the largest number of "Barrier points" (23), and "Pinch points" (117), respectively, whereas, the ECS presented the least "Barrier points" and "Pinch points", but more stable network structure characteristics and functions. 4) The connectivity robustness of CDS, FUG, and ECS scenarios declined slowly in the "Random attack" mode, where the critical values of ecological network stability were 89%, 90%, and 90% node failure ratio, respectively. Among them, the ECS scenario presented a higher critical value of network stability in the "Intentional attack" mode, particularly with a node failure ratio of 55%. Therefore, the ecological network under ECS achieved the highest stability among the three scenarios. This finding can provide a strong quantitative reference and decision-making on ecological spatial planning, ecosystem stability, and protection management strategies in the Poyang Lake Plain region. The case study can also be offered for ecological network research in similar regions.

       

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