李毅, 周牡丹. 气候变化情景下新疆棉花和甜菜需水量的变化趋势[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(4): 121-128. DOI: doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.04.018
    引用本文: 李毅, 周牡丹. 气候变化情景下新疆棉花和甜菜需水量的变化趋势[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(4): 121-128. DOI: doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.04.018
    Li Yi, Zhou Mudan. Variation trends in water requirement of cotton and sugar beet in Xinjiang under climate change scenarios[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2015, 31(4): 121-128. DOI: doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.04.018
    Citation: Li Yi, Zhou Mudan. Variation trends in water requirement of cotton and sugar beet in Xinjiang under climate change scenarios[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2015, 31(4): 121-128. DOI: doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.04.018

    气候变化情景下新疆棉花和甜菜需水量的变化趋势

    Variation trends in water requirement of cotton and sugar beet in Xinjiang under climate change scenarios

    • 摘要: 利用改进的非参数统计检验Mann-Kendall(MK)方法进行序列趋势检验时,因考虑了时间序列自相关性的影响而使检验结果更趋严格。本文采用MK法及改进的MK法对新疆地区41站1961-2010及2015-2099年主要经济作物棉花和甜菜需水量ETc和相关气候要素的变化趋势进行了检验,探讨了序列自相关性对ETc趋势检验结果的影响,并给出了各站及全疆ETc的变化趋势。结果表明:1)当自相关阶数大于0时,应采用改进MK法判断ETc的变化趋势;2)1961-2010棉花和甜菜的ETc具有一定的相依结构,2015-2099年棉花的ETc具有非常明显的长程相关性,但2015-2099年甜菜的ETc均具有时间独立性;3)无论对于棉花还是甜菜ETc,各站点Sen斜率和线性斜率值很接近,满足极好的线性关系,表明两者在反映趋势幅度时具有高度一致性;4)ETc序列是否存在相依性对于趋势显著性有重要影响,最终的趋势检验需用MK法和改进的MK法综合判断。1961-2010和2015-2099年棉花和甜菜的ETc在多数站点呈下降趋势,但其显著性各异。ETc序列的下降说明未来新疆棉花和甜菜用水需求降低,遭受干旱的风险降低。棉花及甜菜ETc的趋势特征对于气候变化背景下干旱-半干旱区作物灌溉制度的制定和防灾抗旱有重要参考价值。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test is a nonparametric statistical test. When the modified MK (MMK) test was used for serial trend test, it was considered to be stricter than the MK test considering the influence of self-correlation of time series. In this article, the MK method and the MMK method were combined for trend tests of water requirements (ETc) for two main economic crops, i.e., cotton and sugar beet, at 41 stations in Xinjiang over two periods of 1961-1961 and 2015-2099. The influences of serial self-correlation of ETc on trend test results were investigated, and the spatial distribution of trends in ETc of each site and the whole Xinjiang were presented. The results showed that: (1) When the order of self-correlation j was greater than 0, the statistics obtained from the MMK test should be adopted. (2) Over 1961-2010, ETc of both cotton and sugar beet had certain temporal-dependent structures. Over 2015-2099, ETc of cotton had very significant long-range correlation, but ETc of sugar beet hadn't any temporal dependence. (3) Over 1961-2010, which the trends in ETc of cotton at 37 sites decreased, of which the trends in ETc of cotton at 8 sites were significant. Over 2015-2099 for A2 scenario, trends in ETc of cotton at all of the sites in Xinjiang decreased, of which trends in ETc of cotton at 13 sites were significant, while trends in ETc at 28 sites were not significant. For B2 scenarios, only at Luntai the trend in ETc of cotton increased insignificantly, trends in ETc of cotton at the remaining 40 sites decreased. Over 2015-2099 for A2 scenario, trends in ETc of sugar beet at 13 sites increased, of which trends at 3 and 10 sites were significant and insignificant, respectively; trends in ETc of sugar beet at the remaining 28 sites decreased, of which the trends were significantly and insignificant at half of the 28 sites. For B2 scenario, trends in ETc of sugar beet at 9 sites increased. (4) Over 1961-2010, trends in ETc of cotton and sugar beet in the whole Xinjiang decreased significant and insignificant, respectively. Over 2015-2099 for A2 and B2 scenarios, both trends in ETc of cotton decreased significantly; trends in ETc of sugar beet also decreased insignificantly for A2 scenario but significantly for B2 scenario. (5) For both cotton and sugar beet, Sen's slope b were related to the linear slope SL with high coefficients of determination with linear function, which reflected the high consistency of the two variables when describing the trend amplitudes (6) It is necessary to consider the effects of self-correlation for ETc series when using MK test. (7) The synthetic effects of decreases in wind speed and solar radiation as well as the increases in precipitation and relative humidity on the restraining of ETc surpassed the effects of increases in air temperatures in Xinjiang. In conclusion, decreases in the trends of ETc series showed that there were reduced water demands of cotton and sugar beet in the future in Xinjiang, and the risk of drought also reduced. Trend variations in ETc for cotton and sugar beet had important reference value for making the crop irrigation planning and drought disaster prevention under the background of climate change in the arid and semi-arid areas.

       

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