基于AnnAGNPS模型的千岛湖流域氮、磷输出总量预测

Prediction of output loading of nitrogen and phosphorus from Qiandao Lake watershed based on AnnAGNPS model

摘要: 农业非点源污染目前已成为我国水环境恶化和湖泊富营养化的重要因素。运用AnnAGNPS模型对千岛湖流域农业非点源污染物输出总量及时空分布进行预测分析。研究结果表明预测结果与实测结果在一定误差范围内基本一致，表明该模型应用于农业非点源污染负荷估算及评价是可行的。

Abstract: The agricultural non-point source (ANPS) is the most important factor for water environmental deterioration and lake eutrophication. Based on AnnAGNPS (Annualized Agricultural Non-point Source) model, the output loading of nitrogen and phosphorus from Qiandao Lake watershed was predicted, and the characteristics of spatial-temporal distribution of nitrogen and phosphorus were discussed. The study showed that the predicted results coincided with measured results, which suggested that this model be suitable for prediction and assessment of pollution loading of ANPS.