北京地区不同保证率下热量资源的推算及结果分析

Calculation of different ensurance probabilities of heat resource and analyses of the calculated results

摘要: 热量资源是农业生产的一个很重要的制约因素。为了更好地为北京市农业生产提供基础数据，为设施农业工程、种子基地、蔬菜基地、林果基地的建设以及山区气候资源的开发利用等提供热量资源的科学依据，该文基于1 km×1 km网格，在以往工作的基础上，引入云量订正方法，建立了不同保证率(80%、90%、95%)下的各月平均气温、月平均最高气温、月平均最低气温的回归方程，对北京地区的热量资源进行了推算，在此基础上求算出不同保证率下≥0℃积温和≥10℃积温，得出各种热量资源的地理分布，并对推算的结果进行了误差分析。

Abstract: Heat resource is one of the important factors for agriculture. In order to give scientific bases to build protected agriculture, seed bases, vegetable bases, forest and fruit bases, and also provide bases for exploitation and use of climatic resources of mountainous areas on the basis of previous work, using cloud cover correction method, equations of 1 km×1 km gridding were set up for different ensurance probabilities(85%, 90%, 95%) of month mean temperature, month mean highest temperature and lowest temperature to calculate heat resources in Beijing area. On the basis of stated work, ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature were calculated. And geographical distribution of various heat resource were given. And the calculating errors were analyzed.