农业病害测报系统群决策的动态专家支持度方法

    Dynamic expert support degree method for group decision making of agricultural diseases forecasting system

    • 摘要: 在农业病害测报系统中,经常用到专家群决策方法,并用专家支持度来反映专家个体决策对于群体决策结果的影响力,提高了群决策结果的合理性,但应用系统中往往采用静态专家支持度,专家个体的决策意见可能会因为环境不同而有较大的随机性,导致决策结果错误。该文提出了动态专家支持度的方法,建立农业测报系统多专家群决策模型,采用动态权值计算方法来动态调整系统内专家的支持度。既充分体现专家经验,也在一定程度内解决了专家意见的随机性导致的问题,不仅提高了群决策的科学性,也使农业病害测报系统群决策获得较高的决策可靠性,该方法已经在实际应用项目中使用。

       

      Abstract: In agricultural diseases forecasting system, it usually uses the method of expert group decision making and the expert support degree to reflect the effect of expert personal decision to the group decision consequence. In this way, the rationality of the group decision consequence can be improved effectively. In this kind of systems, the static expert support degree is always employed, and the expert’s personal decision has randomness because of the different environment. Therefore, the randomness could lead to a wrong result. It presented a dynamic method of expert support degree, and set up the model of multi-expert group decision for the agricultural diseases forecasting system, and used the dynamic weight value calculation method to adjust the expert support degree in this system. The method can not only reflect the experience of expert, but also resolve the question from the randomness of the expert’s views, and improve the scientificity and the reliability of the group decision making of the agricultural diseases forecasting system. This method has been used in practical project.

       

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