陈 萍, 陈晓玲. 鄱阳湖生态经济区农业系统的干旱脆弱性评价[J]. 农业工程学报, 2011, 27(8): 8-13.
    引用本文: 陈 萍, 陈晓玲. 鄱阳湖生态经济区农业系统的干旱脆弱性评价[J]. 农业工程学报, 2011, 27(8): 8-13.
    Chen Ping, Chen Xiaoling. Evaluating drought vulnerability of agricultural system in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone, China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2011, 27(8): 8-13.
    Citation: Chen Ping, Chen Xiaoling. Evaluating drought vulnerability of agricultural system in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone, China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2011, 27(8): 8-13.

    鄱阳湖生态经济区农业系统的干旱脆弱性评价

    Evaluating drought vulnerability of agricultural system in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone, China

    • 摘要: 干旱是鄱阳湖生态经济区面临的主要的生态问题之一。建立旱灾预警机制,需要深入理解旱灾发生的机理,评价干旱可能造成的损失,以便为政策的制定提供科学依据。选择代表干旱暴露度、敏感性与适应能力的14个因子,通过层次分析法确定了各因子的权重,运用综合指数法生成了研究区农业生态系统的干旱脆弱性指数。应用ArcGIS9.3软件绘制了研究区的干旱脆弱性空间分布图,结果表明该区域的对干旱以中度脆弱性为主;在空间分布上具有明显的南北分异规律,北部县市农业系统的干旱脆弱性总体上比南部县市的高。结合暴露度、敏感性与适应能力的空间分布深入分析了干旱脆弱性形成的机理,在此基础上对未来该区域的干旱防治与管理提出了针对性的建议。

       

      Abstract: Drought is one of the principal pertubations in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone(PLEEZ). It is important to investigate the mechanism of droughts in order to evaluate potential losses of droughts and provide a scientific basis for policymaking. We selected fourteen indicators representing exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to droughts respectively. The weights of the indicators were calculated by analytic hierarchy process. Then using the composite index approach these indicators were combined into a drought vulnerability index of agricultural system by a linear aggregation. Maps of drought vulnerability and its elements in PLEEZ were drawn by applying the software of ArcGIS9.3. The results showed that the drought vulnerability of the agricultural system in PLEEZ were mainly at middle rank. Spatial differentiation of the drought vulnerablity existed that the rank of the drought vulnerability in the northern areas of PLEEZ were higher than that in the south. On the basis of the relationship between the drought vulnerability and exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capability, some suggestions for the drought hazard management in the future were proposed.

       

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