Abstract: In order to study land use change trend and find out the series relationships between driving factors, taking the Changhua downstream watershed in Hainan province as the study area, the land use scenario in 2018 was simulated and forecasted on the basis of land use types interpretation of 1998 and 2008, rainfall, slope and range of distance data by means of CA-Markov model. Results showed that the simulation accuracy by this model attained 77.67%, and most area of forest and rivers were transformed into orchards. The change of rivers was in accord with real GDP per capita increasing or decreasing. Most area of forest’s transformation occurred in places of real GDP per capita with low level. Area of forest and rivers with population of 200 000 to 470 000 was mainly transformed. Therefore, protective measures for natural resources and reasonable regional development mode should be taken to reserve natural resources better. This study provides a policy basis for ecological protection and optimization of resources allocation.