Analysis of spatio-temporal distribution of drought characteristics based on SPEI in Inner Mongolia during 1960-2015

Abstract: Grassland animal husbandry and rainfed farming are two pillar industries in Inner Mongolia agriculture, and they are vulnerable to natural disasters, especially drought. Analysis of spatio-temporal distribution of drought characteristics in Inner Mongolia is important for local government to tackle climate change. In order to define the spatiotemporal distribution of drought characteristics and its response to climate change in Inner Mongolia at different time scales, monthly data from 46 meteorological stations for the period 1960-2015 were selected in this study, including monthly sunshine hours, wind speed at 10m height, mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, station pressure and so on. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was established using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ET0) data at different time scales, in which ET0 was calculated by FAO Penman-Monteith equation instead of Thornthwaite formula. In order to find out the drought characteristics, Mann-Kendall test, drought indices, climate tendency rate, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis were carried out on the precipitation, ET0 and SPEI. Considering of the pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the correlation of SPEI with PDO index in Inner Mongolia was also discussed. The results of this research showed that from the inter-annual changes, it showed a humid trend with an abrupt change in 1976 in Inner Mongolia. On the other hand, from the seasonal perspective, it was getting wet in spring (P<0.05) and winter, and there was a drought trend in summer and autumn. The drought coverage appeared as the features of the local and domain drought at the annual scale, and the intensity of drought were light and moderate mainly. Spatially, the western regions had a humid trend, but it was drier in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia on the contrary. Most regions were getting dry in summer (P<0.05) and autumn, and wet in spring and winter. According to the strength of arid sensitivity in Inner Mongolia, it can be divided into 4 sub-regions: Western region (I sub-region), central region (II sub-region), north district in the northeastern region (III sub-region) and south district in the northeastern region (IV sub-region). Drought in I and II sub-regions was gradually alleviated, III and IV sub-regions showed a trend of getting dry. A 12-month-scale SPEI exhibited positive correlation with PDO index since 1960. When it was negative in PDO index, there was quite dry period in Inner Mongolia, otherwise a humid trend. According to the correlation of PDO index with SPEI, it could further prove that there was a significant positive correlation (P<0.05) between PDO index and SPEI, in other words, pacific decadal oscillation had great positive influence on climate and drought characteristics in Inner Mongolia. The record events of the typical drought duration, scale and intensity in yearbook were basically the same with characteristics of calculated SPEI in this paper, which showed SPEI and drought events had good agreement. SPEI could well reflect typical historical drought events, and it had an indicative effect on drought to some extent in Inner Mongolia. The results of this research could be used in assessing the hydrothermal condition scientifically in Inner Mongolia, and could also provide theoretical basis for forecasting and preventing drought disaster.