Spatial optimization simulation of land use pattern in Yellow River Delta Nature Reserve

Abstract: The Yellow River Delta Nature Reserve (YRDNR) is a national nature reserve designed to protect the newly built wetland ecosystem and the rare and endangered birds. It is one of the fastest growing coastal wetland ecosystems around the world and an important site for red-crowned cranes during migration and wintering periods. It is an urgent task to effectively manage and control resource utilization activities and protect the wetland habitat of red-crowned cranes in the YRDNR. Spatial optimization model can be applied to a variety of spatial planning problems to identify trade-offs between conflicting objectives and solve the optimum allocation problem (such as allocation of reserve sites or management actions). In this paper, we firstly had a secondary development with C++ language to construct a land use pattern spatial optimization model based on LUPO (land use pattern optimization) model developed by Annelie Holzkamper et al. The LUPO model can be applied to identify trade-offs between habitat conservation of red-crowned cranes and sustainable development of community economy in the nature reserve, and to optimize allocation of land use in YRDNR. Secondly, we designed 3 target-driven scenarios according to management requirement in YRDNR to balance ecological protection and economic development. Finally, we simulated the spatial optimization of land use pattern in YNRDR under the 3 scenarios by integrating the scenarios into the LUPO model. The results showed as follows: 1) Under Scenario A, it obviously achieved the ecological conservation target with a 30% increase of suitable habitat area of red-crowned crane by converting the areas of reed ponds and mudflats to seepweed tidal flats and Chinese tamarisk-seepweed tidal flats, which are the birds preferred habitats. However, the regional economic benefit had a small increase of only 11%; 2) Under Scenario B, it achieved 54% regional economic growth by converting the area of farmlands, reed ponds and mudflats to shrimp ponds, which owned a highly economic value. In the meanwhile, the habitat area change of red-crowned crane was not obvious, and became more fragmented in Scenario B; 3) Under Scenario C, it achieved the target of 24% suitable habitat area expansion of red-crowned crane along with 41.3% regional economic growth. It may mainly respectively result from significant expansion of seepweed tidal flats and shrimp ponds converted from mudflats and farmlands. In conclusion, it is more reasonable and practical under Scenario C than Scenarios A and B in YNRDR due to the fact the trade-off between wetland habitat conservation and sustainable development is comprehensively considered. We consider that our LUPO model can offer a good technique support for habitat protection of red-crowned crane and wetland landscape management in YRDNR. However, we also recommend a further secondary development of LUPO model to improve the accuracy, feasibility and operability of the model in the future.