Crop yield and water consumption of different cropping patterns under different precipitation years in North China Plain

North China Plain is the important grain production base in China, and the status in the national food industry is very high. However, long-term irrigation has caused heavy losses of groundwater resources in North China Plain, and then groundwater level continues to decline. Crop model can simulate crop growth in a variety of simulation scenarios based on the present research experiments, predict some unknown risks, optimize the management measures of agricultural resources and provide scientific guidance for management of agricultural production. APSIM (agricultural production system simulator model) model is just typical representative of crop model. Therefore, the study used APSIM model to simulate the yield and water consumption situation under different cropping patterns in North China Plain during 1986－2015, to provide scientific basis for adjusting crop planting pattern, agricultural water resource management and agricultural development policy formulation in North China Plain. The results showed that APSIM model could well simulate the winter wheat and summer maize growth period, yield and water use characteristics. The error of crop growth period simulation results was within 5 d, and the R2 values of production, ET and drain simulation results were above 0.84. The results proved that the model had better applicability in North China Plain; the annual yield of wheat-maize double-cropping system (M2Y1) was 13 445 kg/hm2, followed by the yield of 11 076 kg/hm2 for the two-year cropping pattern of winter wheat/summer maize/early maize (M3Y2), and the lowest yield per year was 9 215 kg/hm2 for early maize one-year cropping pattern (M1Y1) with the decreasing trend of -2 000 kg/hm2. The trend of ET corresponding to yield was 724 mm (M2Y1) > 631 mm (M3Y2) > 534 mm (M1Y1), while the decreasing trend was -100 mm. The quantity of drain and overdraft of M2Y1, M3Y2 and M1Y1 all decreased, but the decreasing trend of drain was not significant while the decreasing trend of overdraft was similar to that of ET, which was −100 mm. Comparing yield and water consumption of 3 cropping patterns, we can know that the difference of water consumption in different cropping patterns was mainly related to the growth of winter wheat. The average annual water consumption of winter wheat was over 400 mm, while the average annual precipitation of wheat growth period was less than 140 mm and the overdraft exceeded 260 mm. The mismatch between precipitation and crop water demand leads to irrigation water increase, serious groundwater loss and lower groundwater level, which is not conducive to the sustainable utilization of groundwater resources in North China Plain. In conclusion, wheat-maize double-cropping system had not only the highest annual output, but high water consumption and the most serious water loss in North China Plain; two-year cropping pattern of winter wheat/summer maize/early maize gave consideration to yield and water consumption, and the comprehensive effect of yield and water consumption was the best. In addition, this study compared yield and water consumption of different cropping patterns under different precipitation years in Luancheng, Hebei, which proved that precipitation resources are of great significance to the growth of crops, while the yield was higher and the water loss was relatively small in the year of high precipitation.