Spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics and driving force of territorial space evolution in the Yellow River Delta

Abstract: Territorial space is an essential carrier to support the sustainable development of ecological civilization in the human community. It is necessary to accurately identify the types of territorial space, and thereby to determine the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and driving factors. Taking the High-Efficiency Eco-economic Zone of the Yellow River Delta as the research area, this study aims to optimize the pattern of land and space under the guideline of "process-pattern-drive". Firstly, a territorial space classification system was constructed using the remote sensing data from 2000 to 2020. Secondly, a chord diagram model in visualization data and Geo-information Tupu were selected to describe the evolution of territorial space. A gravity-center shift model and spatial autocorrelation were used to clarify the spatial and temporal pattern in territorial space evolution. Finally, a geographic detector was used to analyze the driving mechanism of territorial space evolution. The results showed that: 1) The change rates of territorial space in the Yellow River Delta were 0.39% and 2.1% in 2000-2010 and 2010-2020, respectively. There was an increasingly significant change in the territorial space structure. The territorial space evolution included the internal exchange of agricultural space, the exchange of ecological space and agricultural space, as well as the transfer of urban space to ecological space. 2) The gravity-center of ecological space shifted 23.903 km to the southeast in the Yellow River Delta, indicating the longest migration path from 2000 to 2020. Nevertheless, the gravity center of agricultural space shifted 3.241 km to the northwest with the shortest migration path. In addition, the spatial agglomeration of territorial space change was mainly concentrated in the coastal areas. The agricultural and urban space occupied the ecological space from 2000 to 2010, whereas, the urban space fed back ecological and agricultural space from 2010 to 2020. 3) There were different driving factors for the spatial differentiation in the spatial change rate in various periods. Specifically, the policy and institutional environment dominated the study area after the construction of the high efficiency eco-economic zone, whereas, the traffic location and the level of economic development dominated before that. A reasonable and orderly pattern of land protection was also established to evaluate regional resources, environment carrying capacity, and territorial space suitability ("double assessment"), thereby clarifying the carrying scale and suitability level of regional development for the decision-making on the territorial space strategies.