Index and zoning for green and low-carbon transition of cultivated land utilization in main grain-producing areas of China

The cultivated land environment has imposed the most serious constraints on national food and ecological security. The green and low-carbon transformation of cultivated land is of great significance to promote sustainable agriculture under the "dual carbon" goals. In this study, an input-output analysis model was established for the green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land. The transition index was also constructed for the green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land, according to a comparative analysis of the "status quo target". The governance areas were then grouped for the various regulation paths. A case study was conducted on 171 prefecture-level cities in the main grain-producing areas of China. Firstly, the temporal and spatial characteristics were analyzed for the green and low-carbon utilization efficiency of cultivated land from 2000 to 2020. Secondly, the indicators were predicted for the green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land in 2030. Finally, 171 prefecture-level cities were grouped for the differentiated suggestions, according to the green and low-carbon index of cultivated land. The results indicate that there was an increasing trend in the green and low-carbon utilization level of cultivated land in the main grain-producing areas from 2000 to 2020, indicating a spatial pattern with the high in the north and the low in the south. The improved level was predicted in the green and low-carbon of cultivated land in 2030, but there were significant differences in the growth rates among regions. Strict control zones for pollution reduction and carbon reduction, control zones, and protection zones, as well as the pollution and carbon sequestration protection zones accounted for 9.36%, 39.77%, 10.52%, and 40.35% of the main grain production areas, respectively, which were distributed mainly in the southern, central and southern regions, Yantai city in Shandong Province, and cities along the eastern coast, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan Province. Some suggestions were proposed to strengthen the efficient allocation of farmland production factors, according to the socio-economic conditions of each region. The farmland carbon sequestration and emission reduction technologies can be utilized to implement green and low-carbon production practices. Differentiated guidance of green and low-carbon transition was established for the carbon sink systems of farmland. The finding can provide strong reference and decision-making support to explore the path of green and low-carbon utilization transition of cultivated land. Differentiated regulation suggestions are also addressed to promote sustainable land use and green transition in modern agriculture.