Identification of land use conflicts in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area based on “multi-suitability-scarcity-diversity”

Land use conflict has been one of the most important global issues in recent years. Accurate and rapid identification of land use conflicts can be the essential prerequisite to realizing the sustainable use of land resources. The optimization of territorial spatial patterns is also of great significance for the scientific, rational and efficient protection and utilization of land resources. Generally, the land use conflicts can be attributed to the scarce land resources, land use multi-suitability, and demand diversity. However, only a few studies have been used to identify land use conflicts from the three dimensions. Taking the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as the study area, this study aims to identify the land use conflicts using "multi-suitability-scarcity–diversity". Firstly, the theoretical mechanism of land use conflict was analyzed using human-land coordination, ecological security, multifunctional theory of land use, Maslow’s hierarchy of needs theory, and land resource scarcity. A new framework was constructed to identify the land use conflict using land use multi-suitability, land resource scarcity, and demand diversity. The multiple objective evaluation was performed on the multi-suitability, scarcity and demand diversity of land use. The spatial overlay analysis function was then used to measure the land use conflict index in the Arcgis platform. Finally, the spatial pattern of land use conflict was quantitatively described during this time. The results showed that: 1) There was mainly medium (48.23%) with a wide distribution in the multi-suitability of the land use. The land resource scarcity was mainly medium (49.67%). The spatial distribution was also the pattern of the "decreasing from the middle to the periphery" in the areas with the rapid urbanization development. The demand diversity was mainly low demand (73.29%) with the spatial distribution of the "high in central and south, low around". 2) The degree of land use conflict was mainly moderate (43.67%), indicating a spatial feature of gradual decline from the rural-urban transition zone to urban and rural areas. The second was the high conflict area (29.80%), which was widely distributed in the urban and rural transition zones in Huizhou, Zhaoqing, Jiangmen City, and the north of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Low-conflict areas accounted for the smallest proportion (26.53%) in the southern coastal areas of the Greater Bay Area, as well as some mountainous and hilly areas. 3) Land use conflicts shared significant urban-rural differences. The high conflict zones were concentrated in cities and urban-rural transition zones, especially in the rapidly developed Huizhou, Jiangmen, and Zhaoqing. The conflict areas were widely distributed in the production and living areas of villages and towns. Low conflict zones were distributed in the mountainous and hilly areas with low land use suitability. 4) There was a high suitability of cultivated and ecological land. The land resources scarcity was generally high in the areas with high land use conflicts. The middle conflict zone was mainly caused by the high land resource scarcity and human demand diversity. Potential land use conflicts should be fully considered in the territorial space planning and the demarcation of the three districts and three lines. A land use conflict early warning mechanism should be established to incorporate into the supervision and implementation system of territorial space planning. The finding can provide a scientific basis to optimize the territorial space pattern.