Spatial optimization of land use pattern and trade-off analysis in Hangzhou City by coupling MOP and FLUS model

Optimal structure and layout of urban land use can greatly contribute to the planning management and decision-making on the coordinated optimization of social and economic development, and ecological protection. Since rapid urban expansion can improve the regional social and economic levels, there were also many prominent issues, including the harsh contradiction between resource supply and demand, encroachment on farmland, ecological degradation, water and atmospheric environmental pollution. Existing studies have overlooked the trade-off analysis of land use economic, social, and ecological benefits, thus reducing the guiding role of land use patterns in the optimization scheme. Taking Hangzhou City of China as an example, the multiple objective planning (MOP) and the future land use simulation (FLUS) model were coupled to trade-off the land use economic, social, and ecological benefits for the optimal plan of land use structure. The FLUS model was used to simulate the land use pattern in 2035. The spatial optimization plan of land use was obtained to compare the different development scenarios. The results showed that: 1) The optimal configuration scenario simulation of land use structure and layout was effectively achieved from the perspective of land use eco-economic transformation efficiency using the coupled MOP and FLUS model. The decision-making suitable for cities was then made to formulate the multiple development goals. 2) A comparison was conducted on the proportion of the decrease in the unit economic benefits and the increase in the ecological benefits. The development scenario was determined with a 4:6 weight ratio between land use economic and ecological benefits. The optimal plan was obtained for the land use structure, in order to trade off the social, economic, and ecological benefits of land use. The economic benefit of land use was the highest at 3 694.2 billion yuan under this development scenario, whereas, the ecological benefit of land use was 44.7 billion yuan, indicating the high-level total benefit of land use. Meanwhile, there was the 163 450 hm² expansion scale of construction land in the optimal land use structure scheme, which was between the scenario of economic development optimization and ecological protection priority. There was a decrease in the reduction in the farmland scale, thus reducing the occupation of important ecological land. 3) The simulation accuracy of the FLUS model was 89.36% suitable for land use in this case. In terms of the land use spatial pattern, the expansion of construction land was concentrated mainly in the eastern main urban area and the surrounding areas. By contrast, the slow expansion of construction land was found in the variation in other land use types in the western region. Moreover, there was a more compact expansion pattern of construction land in this scenario, compared with the rest development scenarios, indicating the fragmented and less complex landscape patterns and high aggregation of patches. The findings can provide theoretical and practical references for regional land use planning, decision-making and sustainable development.