Assessing the ecological sensitivity of the Northern Foothills of Qinling Mountains using DPSIRM and PLUS models

Northern foothill of the Qinling Mountains region has been one of the unique ecological treasures in China, due to the rich and diverse ecological environment, as well as the complex terrain and variable climate. However, it is ever increasing impact of human activities on the local natural environment and ecosystems, as economic development and population growth. Severe challenges have posed on the protection of the ecological environment. Consequently, it is urgent to investigate the ecological environment quality in the stability and sustainable development of the ecosystem. This study aims to assess the ecological sensitivity in the northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains using the driving-force-pressure-state-impact-response-management (DPSIRM) and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models. Initially, 17 indicators were selected to evaluate the ecological sensitivity in 2010, 2015 and 2020, according to the DPSIRM framework. Furthermore, the PLUS model was employed to simulate the spatial distribution of land use from 2020 to 2030. Various scenarios were also considered to integrate the present ecological situation. Subsequently, the simulated and predicted data of land use was served as the key influencing factors to assess the ecological environment. The spatial distribution of ecological sensitivity was predicted in the study area in the future. The findings reveal that the ecologically sensitive regions within the northern foothills were primarily centered around the urban core, indicating the greater resilience to disturbance, as the distance increased from urban centers. Furthermore, the proportion of non-sensitive areas gradually increased from 9% to 26% between 2010 and 2020, with the highest share of low-sensitive zones in 2010 (38%), medium-sensitive zones peaking in 2015 (28%), and the highest proportion of low-sensitive regions in 2020 (30%). Notably, the proportion of extremely sensitive zones was remained relatively low and consistent (5%-10%), indicating an overall favorable trend of the gradual improvement in the ecological environment over time. Furthermore, the patterns of land use were primarily comprised the farmland, woodland, and grassland, according to some projections under three distinct scenarios in the period from 2020 to 2030. Therefore, the ecological preservation was aligned with development and prioritizing sustainable strategies, which was most closely with current ecological objectives. The spatial distribution of ecological sensitivity was obtained within the context of ecological protection. Pertinent measures can be concurrently implemented in distinct sensitive areas. A robust foundation can be offered for the whole development and sustainable utilization of the ecosystem. The findings can also provide the solid refence to preserve the stability and sustainable ecosystem, particularly for the rational allocation and utilization of production, living, and ecological zones within the Qinling region.