Heterogeneous characteristics and multi-dimensional analysis of the driving factors for urban land use carbon deficit in China

Land use pattern has posed a profound influence on the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystem in recent years. It is of great significance to explore the evolution trend of land use carbon deficit and the driving factors of spatial differentiation, in order to realize the goal of “dual carbon” on schedule. This study aims to determine the heterogeneity and driving factors of carbon deficit on the urban land use in China. The land use data and social statistics were taken from 2010 to 2019. The land use carbon footprint and carbon carrying capacity of 278 cities in China were calculated to consider the land type, crop carbon absorption and energy consumption using emission coefficient. According to the differentiated effects of regional social attributes, the carbon compensation coefficient was introduced to estimate the land use carbon deficit. The regional difference model was then used to explore the overall, inter-regional and intra-regional differences in the land use carbon footprint, carbon carrying capacity and carbon deficit in the study area. Finally, Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model was used to explore the driving factors on the spatial differentiation of land use carbon deficit. From the perspectives of ecological environment construction and management effectiveness, the comprehensive utilization rate was obtained for the industrial solid waste, social and economic development, industrial structure, public infrastructure, and technologies. The results showed that: 1) The carbon footprint and deficit of land use showed an inverted “V” trend of fluctuation downward during the study period, while the carbon carrying capacity showed a slight fluctuation upward trend. The average carbon deficit of land use in the pilot cities was 39800 hm2 less than that of non-pilot cities, indicating the better construction of low-carbon pilot cities. There was the more serious carbon deficit in Northern China. Particularly, the carbon deficit decreased significantly in Northeast China. 2) The overall difference of land use carbon deficit in the study area showed a slightly increasing trend during the study period. This trend was then attributed to the differentiated development within the region. Furthermore, the inter-regional differences of land use carbon carrying capacity showed a slight increase at regional on the whole. On the contrary, there was the opposite trend in the inter-regional differences of land use carbon footprint and land use carbon deficit. Among them, the difference of land use carbon deficit changed the most in Northeast China. An increasing trend was found in the intra-regional differences of land use carbon footprint and land use carbon carrying capacity. While the intra-regional differences of land use carbon deficit showed a decreasing trend, and there was the significant decrease in the internal differences in Northern and Eastern China. 3) Different driving factors shared the significant spatial heterogeneity on the spatial distribution of carbon deficit. Specifically, the developed regions were required to promote the efficient use of resources and the low-carbon technologies. The new technologies can be introduced to scientifically reduce carbon emissions for the resource allocation and industrial structure in the regions under the rapid growth period. The findings can provide the scientific reference to reduce the pressure difference of carbon emission, and then accelerate the construction of low-carbon cities, in order to optimize the low-carbon layout of national space.