Analysis of relationships between cultivated land occupation and economic growth in Jiangsu province based on decoupling theory

Abstract: Economic development pressure on the occupation of cultivated land resources and protective requirements for cultivated land based on food security and social stability have always been contradictory in the context of our socio-economic development. Using relative 1976-2009 data in Jiangsu Province, the variation tendency of cultivated land resources was analyzed, decoupling relationships between cultivated land occupation and economic growth were evaluated quantitatively, and the reasons for decoupling were explored. The decoupling indicator (Di), ratio of decoupling indicator (Dr), and decoupling factor (Fd) were used to assess decoupling relationships between cultivated land occupation and economic growth in Jiangsu Province from 1976 to 2009. Dr is defined as the ratio of decoupling indicator (Di) at the end to that of the start of a given time, as follows: Dr = Diend/Distart. Here Di= EP/DF, in which EP means environmental pressure, and DF stands for driving forces. And Fd = 1-Dr. When Fd is above zero, decoupling occurred during the period. Decoupling can be divided into two forms, relative decoupling and absolute decoupling. When the economy increases, the use of resources or pressure on environment increases at certain lower rates separately, that is to say, the more economy increases, the relatively less the use of resources or pressures on environment increases because the gap between economic development and use of resources or pressure on environment becomes more and more great. This is what is called 'relative decoupling'. Absolute decoupling would happen when the growth rate of resource use or pressure on environment decreased even though the gross use of resources increases rapidly while economic growth keeps increasing. All needed data were collected from Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook. Study results show that cultivated land area in Jiangsu province continuously declined over nearly 35 years, and the area of total cultivated land and per capita cultivated land declined by an annual average rate of 0.38% and 1.33%, respectively. The decline in cultivated land accelerated from the 1980s until 2006, at which time the decline slowed. Decoupling between cultivated land occupation and non-agricultural output growth has occurred in relative or absolute terms from the period of 'the Sixth Five-Year Plan' to 'the Eleventh Five-Year Plan'. The decoupling indicator (Di) shows that the continuous decline in cultivated land consumption with increasing per unit GDP changed from 923.5 hm2/108 RMB to 20.5 hm2/108 RMB from the period of "the Fifth Five-Year Plan" to "the Eleventh Five-Year Plan", indicating that economic growth has obvious lower dependence on the consumption of cultivated land. Decoupling between cultivated land occupation and economic growth is caused by the transformation of economic growth patterns and labour input, technological progress and investment in fixed assets continue to increase. With a transformation from quantitative growth to a quality-oriented growth model, cultivated land consumption by economic development will be lower, and contradictions of cultivated land protection and economic development are expected to ease.