Analysis on characteristics and influential factors of grain yield fluctuation in China based on empirical mode decomposition

Abstract: There is an important significance for China's food security to explore the fluctuation characteristics and influence factors of grain output per sown area (hereinafter referred to as grain yield), and then to take corresponding measures to stabilize and improve the grain yield level. In this paper, the time-series yields of grain and main crops (rice, wheat and maize) from 1978 to 2012 in China were decomposed using empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method, and then multi-scale fluctuation characteristics and its main influence factors of grain yield were analyzed. The results showed: 1) the time series of grain yield could be decomposed into two intrinsic mode functions (IMF) and a residual item. The residual item denotes a slow and steady rising trend in grain yield which is dominated by the technological progress. The IMF1 and IMF2 represent a short-term fluctuation in about 4-yr cycle and a medium-term fluctuation in about 9-yr cycle, which respectively reflect the influence of meteorological and policy factors on grain yields according to the analysis of grain production system. The variance contribution rate of the residual item was greatly larger than that of the IMFs, which means the upward trend in grain yield was more pronounced than fluctuations. 2) Fluctuation of trend yield of grain was distinct before and after 1997: fast rise with an average annual growth rate of 2.28% before 1997 and slow rise with an average annual growth rate of only 0.69% after 1997. The change of trend yield was similar between rice and grain, but the former seemed to rise more slowly after 1997. For wheat and maize, the trend yield was still increased obviously although the growing rate had been significantly slowing down after 1997. 3) The IMF2 included 3 complete cycles (1979-1988, 1989-1993, and 1994-2002) and an ongoing cycle (2003 to present) which coincided with adjustment of Chinese agricultural policy. In general, the impact of policy and market factors on fluctuation of grain yield is greater than that of climate factors, but responses of different crops to different policies varied: policies on land, tax, subsidies, incentives and insurance had positive or negative effect on medium-term fluctuation of main crops synchronously, but price policies was not the case for main crops especially for maize. Medium-term fluctuation rate of grain yield was 2.94%, and that of wheat was 3.83%, significantly higher than that of maize (2.38%) and rice (2.18%). It suggested wheat's vulnerability to policies. 4) The short-term fluctuation rate of grain yield was 1.80%, and that of maize, wheat, and rice was 3.38%, 2.55%, and 1.06%, respectively. It indicated that Chinese grain production system had a strong ability to resist against meteorological disaster. The disaster prevention capabilities of different crops was not the same, and maize was more easily affected by meteorological disasters than wheat and rice. 5) Both considering the short-term and medium-term fluctuation rates, rice was the most stable crop in yield. The main problem of rice production was the slow growth of yield trend after 1998, while maize was strongly influenced by meteorological disaster, and fluctuation of wheat was significantly affected by policy cycles. At present, China's agriculture production has entered a new development stage. It is necessary to adjust the agricultural policy in order to adapt to the new situation. The results here can help with decision-making and adjustment of agricultural policies.