Study on Energy Stratagem of Sustainable Development in Rural Area of China （Part Ⅱ）——Forecast Study on Medium and Long Term Energy Demand in Rural Area of China

Rural energy forecast is belong to the category of regional energy forecast, the concept of regional energy demand should be emphasized. To forecast the demand of energy consumption in rural area of China will be useful to draw out the rural energy stratagem with rural sustainable development. This paper brings forward the conventional and strengthening renewable energy utilization precept, which is based on the analysis of materials in existence and analysed and calculated scientifically. The energy consumption in rural region is mainly divided into two components, used for economic development and farmer households living. Following the progress of the state key project “Small Rural CityTownship Construction” implementation, the most of rural population will be urbanized locally. Expected by the year of 2010 and 2050, there will be about 770 and 480 millions of pepole living in rural area. on the instant to the strengthening precept, the total commodity energy demand is about 1024 and 1632 Mtce respectively. If the energy consumption in village and town industries is not included in two precepts, the total energy demand in rural area could be 970～1080　Mtce in 2050. The coal consumption will be 31.7 % of the total energy consumption in rural area.